‘Black Phone 2’ Leads Lowest Box Office Weekend YTD, ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Not Poppin’ – Saturday AM Update

The October 2024 box office is projected to be the lowest since 1998, reaching only $440 million, with the current weekend also marking the lowest of the year at approximately $49 million, attributed to Halloween falling on a Friday and the World Series. While the year-to-date box office stands at $7 billion, a 3% increase from last year, it remains 24% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Universal/Blumhouse's *Black Phone 2* led the weekend with $7.6 million, and Focus Features' *Bugonia* achieved a $4.4 million opening, marking a career-best for director Yorgos Lanthimos amidst the overall weak market.

Analysis

The North American box office is experiencing significant headwinds, with October 2024 projected to be the lowest since 1998 at $440 million, a substantial decline from 2018's $832.8 million. The current weekend is also tracking as the lowest of the year at approximately $49 million, impacted by Halloween falling on a Friday and the World Series. While the year-to-date box office for January 1-October 30, 2025, shows a modest 3% increase to $7 billion compared to last year, it remains a considerable 24% below the pre-pandemic 2019 figure of $9.26 billion.

Individual film performances reflect this challenging environment, though some bright spots exist. Universal/Blumhouse's "Black Phone 2" led the weekend with $7.6 million in its third frame, contributing to Comcast's (CMCSA) relatively positive sentiment. Focus Features' "Bugonia," also under CMCSA, achieved a career-best opening for director Yorgos Lanthimos at $4.4 million, demonstrating niche success for critically acclaimed titles despite a $45 million budget.

Conversely, Netflix's (NFLX) "KPop Demon Hunters" underperformed with a $3.4 million second weekend, drawing negative sentiment, while Paramount's (PARA) "Regretting You" and Sony's (SONY) "Chainsaw Man" saw steep second-weekend declines of 51% and 69% respectively, contributing to their negative per-ticker sentiment. The overall market sentiment is moderately negative and pessimistic, driven by persistent underperformance relative to historical benchmarks.

The reliance on re-releases, such as "Back to the Future" ($3.9M reissue), underscores a lack of fresh, high-performing content. This trend suggests a continued struggle for theatrical exhibition to fully recover, with specific studio performance heavily tied to individual film reception and release strategies amidst a competitive entertainment landscape.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should assess studio exposure to theatrical box office versus streaming or other diversified revenue streams, given the persistent weakness in cinema attendance.
• Evaluate film slate quality, focusing on studios with strong, critically acclaimed content or proven franchise power, as niche successes and established horror demonstrate resilience.
• Recognize that macroeconomic factors and shifting consumer habits continue to depress overall box office revenue, making pre-pandemic comparisons challenging for valuation models.