$100 Oil Shock Set to Strain Asia’s Cash-Strapped Governments

The government expects inflation to average 2.0%–3.5% next year versus a 2024 range of 1.5%–2.5%, implying a 50–100bps upward shift in the midpoint/range. The projection is a factual macro update that could modestly increase pressure on monetary policy and local fixed-income markets, but it is not itself a policy action.

Analysis

The government expects inflation to average 2.0%–3.5% next year versus a 2024 range of 1.5%–2.5%, implying a 50–100bps upward shift in the midpoint/range. The projection is a factual macro update that could modestly increase pressure on monetary policy and local fixed-income markets, but it is not itself a policy action.