SpaceX Surpassed Broadcom, Meta Platforms, and Tesla in Market Cap on Its IPO Day. Can It Take on Amazon's Market Cap Next?

The article argues SpaceX is grossly overvalued at a $2.40 trillion market cap and 128x 2025 sales, despite 33% revenue growth to $18.67 billion. It highlights a 2025 net loss of $4.94 billion after incorporating xAI, warns the business remains unprofitable, and suggests the stock could fall by as much as half relative to peers. Amazon is presented as the stronger comparison, with a potential 42% upside to $350 and a projected $3.76 trillion market cap if estimates hold.

Analysis

The key second-order effect is not just a valuation reset in SpaceX, but a potential capital rotation into adjacent public comps that were already being priced as “good enough” substitutes. If the post-IPO halo fades, ASTS is the cleaner expression of the same thematic scarcity because its revenue curve is earlier-stage and its multiple is still anchored to execution, not perfection; that gives it more upside if satellite connectivity remains the market’s preferred proxy for space infrastructure exposure.

The bigger loser may be the broader AI-capex complex if investors start treating every “AI + infrastructure” story as a growth-at-any-price trade. That would mechanically pressure high-multiple leaders like NVDA and AVGO less on fundamentals than on sentiment spillover, while benefiting AMZN as a rare large-cap that can absorb AI spend through operating leverage rather than dilution. In that scenario, AMZN becomes the relative safety valve for the AI trade because it monetizes infrastructure demand without needing perpetual financing.

The article’s timing matters: the next few weeks are more about float mechanics and post-deal supply than intrinsic value. Because the IPO floated such a small stake, the path of least resistance is a squeeze first, then a sharper mean reversion once lockup/secondary supply expectations build and momentum funds de-risk. The contrarian read is that the first leg higher may still happen, but the more durable setup is to fade strength into supply windows rather than shorting the initial break.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Fade strength in SPCX-equivalent exposure on any post-IPO squeeze: use a 2-4 week horizon and size for a 15-25% drawdown scenario once secondary supply/lockup narrative starts to dominate.
• Long ASTS vs. SPCX on a relative-value basis for 1-3 months: ASTS offers cleaner optionality and less financing overhang; target a 20-30% relative outperformance if space/connectivity sentiment cools.
• Add AMZN on weakness into the next 2-6 weeks as the highest-quality AI infra beneficiary; risk/reward improves if the market rotates away from speculative capital-deployment stories toward cash-generative platforms.
• Avoid chasing NVDA/AVGO strength if the tape turns into an anti-bubble rotation; use them as barometers for sentiment spillover rather than isolated stock-specific longs.
• If access exists, structure a short-dated bearish call spread on SPCX around the expected supply window; limited premium outlay, best payoff if the name stalls after initial FOMO buying.