Ollie's Bargain Outlet Likely To Report Lower Q1 Earnings; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings on June 3, with analysts anticipating EPS of $0.71, down from $0.73 year-over-year, and revenue of $565.75 million, up from $508.82 million. Recent analyst ratings show a generally positive outlook, with Keybanc and JP Morgan maintaining Overweight ratings and raising price targets to $135 and $137, respectively, while Piper Sandler lowered its price target to $124; this follows Q4 results where EPS matched estimates but sales slightly missed expectations.

Analysis

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) is poised to release its first-quarter earnings on June 3, with market expectations set for earnings per share (EPS) of 71 cents, a slight decrease from 73 cents per share in the corresponding period last year. Conversely, revenue is anticipated to show robust growth, projected at $565.75 million, up significantly from $508.82 million year-over-year. This contrasts with the company's fourth-quarter performance, where adjusted EPS of $1.19 met consensus estimates, but quarterly sales of $667.1 million, despite a 2.8% year-over-year increase, fell short of the $674.5 million analyst forecast. The stock experienced a minor decline of 0.3% to $111.45 on the preceding Friday. Recent analyst sentiment is largely constructive, though mixed; Keybanc maintained an Overweight rating and increased its price target to $135, and JP Morgan also maintained an Overweight rating while raising its target to $137 in May. However, earlier in March, Piper Sandler, while maintaining an Overweight rating, trimmed its price target to $124, while UBS and Morgan Stanley issued Neutral and Equal-Weight ratings respectively, albeit with increased price targets to $123 and $118. This blend of anticipated revenue growth against a slight EPS contraction, alongside varied analyst price target adjustments, suggests a nuanced outlook pending the earnings disclosure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the Q1 earnings release, focusing on actual revenue achievement against the $565.75 million projection and the EPS figure relative to the anticipated 71 cents, particularly the drivers behind the expected YoY EPS decline.
• Consider the balance between recent bullish price target increases from analysts like Keybanc and JP Morgan against the backdrop of the previous quarter's revenue miss and the more cautious stances from other firms.
• Evaluate management's commentary on consumer demand trends, inventory management, and margin pressures, as these factors will be critical in assessing the sustainability of revenue growth and the path to future profitability.