2 Tech Stocks I Would Buy Before SpaceX

The article argues SpaceX's upcoming IPO may be expensive and not yet suitable for most investors because it is still losing money. It highlights Alphabet as attractive due to 22% year-over-year revenue growth, a 63% surge in cloud services, and operating margin expansion to 36.1%, while Taiwan Semiconductor posted 41% revenue growth with gross margin of 66.2% and operating margin of 58.1%. Overall, the piece is a bullish stock-picking note favoring large-cap tech and AI exposure over the SpaceX IPO.

Analysis

The market is implicitly treating the AI infrastructure stack as if every incremental dollar of demand must accrue to model providers, but the cleaner second-order beneficiaries are the toll collectors: search distribution and foundry capacity. Alphabet’s advantage is not just monetization of existing traffic; it is that AI can be layered onto a pre-existing intent graph, which reduces the odds of wholesale share loss to standalone LLM entrants and keeps ad pricing more resilient than the consensus fears. The risk is less competitive displacement and more that AI answers compress click-through rates over time, which would show up as a gradual rather than abrupt margin headwind over the next 6-18 months.

TSMC remains the better expression of the AI capex cycle because it monetizes complexity regardless of which architecture wins. That makes it a rarer “picks-and-shovels” position with operating leverage: if hyperscalers or device OEMs overbuild, foundry utilization can stay tight for longer than model-timeline headlines suggest. The hidden vulnerability is geopolitical and policy friction, not demand—U.S. capacity buildout is a real medium-term hedge for customers, but it is unlikely to disintermediate TSMC within the next 2-3 years because leading-edge yield and ecosystem depth still matter more than nominal onshore capacity.

The IPO angle is a useful sentiment tell: speculative capital is again reaching for long-duration stories, which usually supports the entire quality-growth complex, but only selectively. SpaceX’s public debut would likely crowd attention into “frontier tech” while leaving profitable compounders relatively under-owned; that is supportive for Alphabet and TSMC on a relative basis, especially if investors rotate from narrative to cash flow after the IPO’s initial price discovery. The consensus is probably underestimating how much capital will be wasted chasing the new listing while the best risk-adjusted opportunities remain the incumbents with self-funding growth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long GOOGL on a 3-6 month horizon into any AI-driven pullback; target outperformance comes from durable earnings revision risk, with downside largely limited to gradual click-mix pressure rather than a moat break.
• Long TSM vs. short a basket of pure-play AI software names over 6-12 months; the pair captures the view that monetization odds are better in infrastructure than in application-layer multiple expansion.
• Sell cash-secured puts in TSM on 10-15% drawdowns; premium should remain attractive given structurally elevated demand visibility and the stock’s tendency to mean-revert on any capex scare.
• Avoid chasing the SpaceX IPO in the first 1-2 weeks of trading; if it lists at a scarcity premium, the risk/reward favors waiting for post-lockup or post-debut volatility rather than paying peak narrative valuation.
• If the market starts rewarding non-profitable frontier names at the expense of cash-generative megacaps, consider a relative-value long GOOGL / short high-multiple unprofitable tech basket to express quality rotation.