Here are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, SpaceX, Tesla, Cava, AMD, Palantir, Microsoft & more

Analysts issued mostly bullish initiation/upgrade calls across multiple sectors: UBS initiated Crescent Energy (Buy, $13 PT) and SM Energy (Buy, $36 PT), Rosenblatt initiated Securitize (Buy, citing undervaluation after a -36% debut), and Benchmark initiated Popular (Buy, $201 PT). Nvidia was reiterated as a strong buy amid continued strength in server trends tied to accelerated AI platforms (Blackwell) and improved supply. In addition, UBS flagged SpaceX’s next Starship test flight for July 16 as its “next big milestone,” while Oppenheimer downgraded IBM to perform from outperform on a negative pre-announcement.

Analysis

The common thread is not “buy every upgrade,” but that the market is being nudged toward a narrower set of duration winners: AI infrastructure, hard-to-build real assets, and businesses with credible pricing power. That favors NVDA/AMD/UMC on the supply side and DLR/NXT on the capacity-constrained footprint side; the second-order effect is that every incremental dollar of enterprise AI spend increasingly flows to a few bottleneck names rather than broad software beta.

The more interesting negative signal is the IBM downgrade, which reinforces a growing split between infrastructure beneficiaries and legacy software monetization. If enterprises are optimizing token spend, the winners are models and workflow tools that can prove payback quickly; the losers are platforms whose AI story depends on longer conversion cycles. That keeps MSFT and PLTR supported, but only so long as they can show usage-to-revenue translation; otherwise the multiple compression risk rises quickly.

The rest of the calls look more like tactical re-ratings than durable inflections. Banks and energy names can work if rates, credit, and crude cooperate, but they are still cyclical balance-sheet and commodity trades, not high-conviction secular longs. Near term, the main falsifier for the AI trade is any sign of capex deceleration or supply chain easing; over 1-3 months, the key tell will be whether management commentary confirms spend is broadening beyond hyperscalers into enterprise and sovereign demand.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NVDA / short IBM for 1-3 months as the cleanest expression of AI infrastructure vs legacy software monetization; cut if IBM’s software growth re-accelerates or NVDA supply commentary weakens.
• Buy AMD on any post-AI-day weakness; prefer a defined-risk call spread into the event if the goal is to capture roadmap re-rating without paying full volatility. Falsifier: no evidence of share gains versus NVDA in data center CPUs/GPUs.
• Add DLR on pullbacks for a 6-12 month trade as scarce data-center real estate should continue to outperform once financing conditions normalize; exit if leasing absorption slows or capex plans are deferred.
• Treat PLTR as a relative-strength long only on dips, not a chase at current levels; the trade works if federal momentum and US commercial expansion keep compounding, but fails fast if growth merely meets rather than beats expectations.
• Stay cautious on the bank upgrades (BPOP, UMBF) until Q3 net interest margin and deposit betas confirm the improvement; this is a watchlist, not an urgent long, unless data validate durable balance-sheet outperformance.