Trump is asking Apple for the impossible, analyst says. Reshoring production won't happen during his term

President Trump is pressuring Apple to move iPhone production to the U.S. with the threat of tariffs, a move Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett deems "pretty well nigh impossible" at scale and within a reasonable timeframe. While Apple has been shifting some production to India, a complete relocation from China is unlikely, though Crockett speculates Apple may make minor concessions like building a small U.S. facility to appease Trump and signal future possibilities for domestic production.

Analysis

President Trump's pressure on Apple Inc. (AAPL) to relocate iPhone production to the United States, coupled with a threat of tariffs of 25% or more on iPhones manufactured abroad, presents a significant challenge, as Rosenblatt Securities senior analyst Barton Crockett deems such a large-scale shift "pretty well nigh impossible" within an investable timeframe. Apple, which currently manufactures its flagship smartphones primarily in China, has already begun diversifying some production to India, a country with a more amicable trade relationship with the U.S. Crockett speculates that Apple might consider symbolic gestures, such as establishing a small U.S. facility or investing in robotics R&D, to alleviate political pressure and suggest a potential future path for domestic production, even if substantial onshoring is not feasible during the current administration. This development, reflecting a broader presidential push for U.S. manufacturing job repatriation, carries a moderately negative sentiment (general score -0.5, AAPL-specific -0.7) and highlights ongoing geopolitical risks to Apple's global supply chain and cost structure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor developments related to U.S. trade policy and potential tariffs specifically targeting Apple, given the direct implications for the company's production costs and profitability.
• Consider any announcements from Apple regarding minor adjustments to its U.S. manufacturing presence or R&D investments as potential strategic moves to mitigate political risk, though these are unlikely to fundamentally alter the company's primary production reliance on Asia in the short term.
• Evaluate the potential for margin compression and stock price volatility for Apple if significant tariffs are implemented, especially in light of expert opinion suggesting that large-scale U.S. iPhone production is not economically or logistically viable in the near future.