Stock exchange release: Kojamo plc announces updated strategy and new financial targets for strategy period 2026-2028

Kojamo plc updated its 2026–2028 strategy, emphasizing customer-centric growth, data/AI and sustainable urban living, and set explicit financial targets: average annual total revenue growth of 5–7%, average annual FFO/share growth of 3–5%, NPS >65 and LTV below 45% (ex. assets held for sale). The company also clarified a dividend policy targeting at least 20% of FFO via dividends and/or buybacks provided the Group equity ratio is ≥40%, signaling steady capital returns while maintaining conservative leverage—guidance that should inform investor expectations on growth, cash flow and balance sheet discipline.

Analysis

Market structure: Kojamo’s explicit targets (revenue +5–7% p.a., FFO/sh +3–5% p.a., LTV <45%, NPS >65 for 2026–2028) reposition it as a lower-leverage, customer-tech-led residential landlord. Winners: Kojamo (KOJAMO.HE), vendors of proptech/AI services, ESG-focused construction contractors capturing sustainable retrofit demand. Losers: pure-play commercial/office landlords and legacy asset managers with higher leverage and weaker customer propositions — pricing power shifts toward large, digitally-enabled residential portfolios.

Risk assessment: Short-term (days–weeks) risk is limited to market repricing around the Feb 11 webcast; medium-term (months) risk centers on execution — hitting NPS and FFO targets while keeping LTV <45%; long-term (2026–2028) tail risks include a macro shock (EUR rates +200–300bp) or regulatory rent caps in Finland which would compress FFO. Hidden dependencies: tech rollouts (AI/data) must translate into lower opex and churn; failure yields margin pressure. Catalysts: confirmation of Q4/2025 numbers, guidance detail on buybacks/dividends, and first NPS data.

Trade implications: Direct: establish a tactical long in KOJAMO.HE sized 2–3% of equity book ahead of the webcast, scale to 4–6% if management confirms targets and retains dividend policy (>=20% FFO with equity ratio >=40%). Pair trade: long KOJAMO.HE vs short Finnish commercial landlord Citycon (CTY1V.HE) 1:1 to isolate residential vs commercial execution. Options: buy 3-month ATM calls (~0.5% notional) or sell 10% OTM puts (collect premium, effective buy if assigned) as income-enhanced entry. Rotate 3–6% from office/commercial REIT exposure into Nordic residential/proptech names over 1–3 months.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underprice execution risk — hitting NPS >65 is operationally demanding and could require capex that depresses near-term FFO; if Kojamo invests aggressively in refurb and tech, short-term cash flow may lag while equity markets assume immediate margin gains. Historical parallel: post-2016 “value-add” landlord repositionings often saw 6–12 month underperformance before rerating; therefore use option structures or staged buys rather than full immediate exposure. Unintended consequence: pushing for low LTV may cap returns in a falling-rate rally where leverage boosts ROE; if EUR yields fall materially, leverage tolerance and buybacks may expand, creating asymmetric upside — monitor LTV and equity ratio triggers closely.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long equity position in KOJAMO.HE within 3 trading days ahead of the Feb 11 webcast; add to 4–6% if management reaffirms revenue +5–7% and FFO/sh +3–5% and maintains dividend policy (>=20% FFO) with equity ratio >=40%.
• Implement a pair trade: long KOJAMO.HE / short CTY1V.HE (Citycon) equal notional, 1–2% net exposure, to express preference for residential/urban living over shopping-centre/commercial landlords over the next 6–12 months.
• Buy 3-month ATM call options on KOJAMO.HE sized ~0.5% of portfolio as convex upside; alternatively sell 10% OTM puts (same notional) to acquire position at a discount if assigned — close or roll after 90 days if share price moves >15%.
• Reduce exposure to office/commercial REITs by 2–4% of portfolio and reallocate to Nordic residential names and proptech suppliers over 1–3 months; target names include KOJAMO.HE and proptech services with recurring revenues.
• Trigger-based risk control: trim KOJAMO position by 50% if LTV guidance drifts above 50% or if management misses 2026 revenue/FFO guidance by >5% at the next quarterly update; increase exposure by 50% if equity ratio >=40% and management announces buybacks covering >20% of FFO.