SpaceX vs Anthropic: Here's Which Mega-IPO I'm More Likely to Buy

The article highlights a potential wave of mega-IPOs, with SpaceX expected to debut around a $1.77 trillion valuation and Anthropic potentially reaching $1.2 trillion or more. SpaceX reported about $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue but a $4.9 billion net loss, while Anthropic’s revenue run rate has surged from $9 billion to $47 billion. Overall tone is constructive on Anthropic’s growth profile, though the piece flags valuation, competition, governance, and legal risks.

Analysis

The market is likely underpricing how much these IPOs will reset private-market marks across the AI stack. If Anthropic prints anywhere near the rumored range, it becomes the cleanest public comp for frontier-model revenue quality, which should lift adjacent private rounds but compress expected returns for late-stage VC funds that have been using scarcity multiples rather than cash flow as the anchor. That is a second-order headwind for other model vendors: once there is a liquid price, buyers will benchmark on growth efficiency and enterprise retention, not just headline token volume.

The bigger winner may be the picks-and-shovels layer, not the IPOs themselves. A giant listing cycle creates forced capital rotation into compute, networking, power, and data-center infrastructure, especially if the public market decides model companies are expensive but infrastructure names remain reasonably priced on forward FCF. Alphabet’s relative underperformance risk is real because the public debut of a strong Claude franchise gives investors a fresher way to express enterprise AI exposure without the search-adjacent regulatory overhang.

The key risk is that these are not normal software IPOs; liquidity and valuation will be dominated by a handful of price-insensitive buyers in the first weeks, then re-rated by whether revenue growth decelerates even modestly. A 25x sales entry is only defensible if quarterly growth stays near hypergrowth levels for multiple quarters; any drop in growth from exponential to merely triple-digit will likely trigger a sharp multiple compression over 3-6 months. For SpaceX, the market is paying today for optionality that may not monetize for years, which makes it more vulnerable to post-lockup reality checks than the headline multiple suggests.

The contrarian read is that the better risk-adjusted trade may be to fade the most crowded pre-IPO enthusiasm and own the enablers instead. If investors crowd into the IPO names, the opportunity cost rises for public AI infra and legacy platform winners that can compound without binary listing risk. The setup looks more like a valuation-transfer event than a broad AI re-rating.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a medium-term long in GOOGL on post-IPO weakness relative to Anthropic headlines; use a 3-6 month horizon and target a 10-15% outperformance if capital rotates away from legacy AI platforms into new public comps.
• Build a basket long in AI infrastructure beneficiaries versus the IPO names after pricing: long semiconductor/equipment and data-center power names on a 6-12 month view, because the first-order capital spend is more durable than frontier-model margins.
• Avoid chasing the IPO tape on day 1; instead wait 2-4 weeks post-listing for lockup/price discovery. If either company trades below 80% of the initial implied valuation, consider a starter long with a 2:1 upside/downside if growth remains intact.
• Pair trade: long public AI enablers / short richly valued legacy AI-adjacent software names that lack direct model differentiation. The catalyst window is 1-2 quarters as the market re-prices who actually captures economics from the AI buildout.
• If you want explicit convexity, buy out-of-the-money calls on the more liquid public proxy once implied volatility normalizes; the risk/reward improves after the first volatility spike rather than during the IPO opening print.