What to Expect in Markets This Week: Retail Sales; Earnings From Deere, Dell and Alibaba; and Thanksgiving

This week’s U.S. trading calendar is shortened for Thanksgiving with markets closed Thursday and early closes Friday (stocks 1:00 p.m. ET; bonds 2:00 p.m. ET), but still features a heavy economic and corporate docket: delayed September retail sales (due Tuesday just ahead of Black Friday), the September Producer Price Index, weekly jobless claims, durable-goods orders, pending home sales, consumer confidence and the Fed Beige Book. Several items postponed by the government shutdown — including the first read of Q3 GDP, October PCE and advanced trade and inventory reports — are being rescheduled, a timing issue that could complicate Federal Reserve deliberations ahead of its Dec. 10 decision. Major earnings to watch include Deere (Wednesday) for construction/agriculture demand signals, Alibaba, Dell and HP (both recently downgraded on component-cost pressures), Workday (first quarter report since Elliott’s stake), NetApp, Zscaler, Autodesk, Agilent, Zoom, Symbotic and Li Auto, all of which could drive sector-level moves in a shortened, liquidity-thin week.

Analysis

U.S. markets face a shortened Thanksgiving week with exchanges closed Thursday and early closes Friday (stocks at 1:00 p.m. ET, bonds at 2:00 p.m. ET), yet a heavy slate of macro releases remains: delayed September retail sales (due Tuesday), the September Producer Price Index, weekly initial jobless claims, durable-goods orders, pending home sales, consumer confidence and the Fed Beige Book. Several reports postponed by the government shutdown — including the first Q3 GDP read, October PCE and advanced trade and inventory reports — are being rescheduled, a timing complication that could make incoming data less complete and complicate Federal Reserve deliberations ahead of the Dec. 10 rate decision. The market-impact score provided is 0.35 and sentiment is neutral, implying the week’s events are more likely to shift sector-level positioning than change the broader macro narrative.

The corporate calendar is concentrated and could drive idiosyncratic volatility in a liquidity-thin environment: Agilent, Zoom and Symbotic report Monday; Alibaba, Applied Digital, Autodesk, NetApp, Zscaler, Workday, Dell and HP report Tuesday (noting Dell and HP were recently downgraded over higher component costs); Deere reports Wednesday and will be watched for construction and agriculture demand signals, while Li Auto also reports. Workday’s report follows activist Elliott’s disclosed stake, presenting a potential catalyst. Last week’s employment print showed hiring surged, so this week’s jobless claims and retail sales will be read alongside inflation prints for implications on consumer resiliency and near-term Fed positioning.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce size of new directional positions into the shortened week and avoid initiating large intraday trades ahead of the early closes, given thinner liquidity and higher bite from earnings moves
• Monitor Tuesday retail sales and the September PPI closely and adjust exposure to consumer cyclicals and inflation-sensitive sectors pending those reads, as they will inform Fed deliberations ahead of Dec. 10
• Take a cautious stance on Dell and HP around earnings—consider trimming or hedging positions given analyst downgrades tied to rising component costs
• Use Deere’s Wednesday results as a read-through for construction and agriculture demand and reassess industrial/capital-goods exposure based on any demand signal
• Consider buying short-dated option protection or volatility around key earnings (Alibaba, Workday, Deere) rather than outright directional exposure to manage risk from potential outsized moves