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The S&P 500 is down 5% from its high and could drop further if the Iran conflict keeps oil prices elevated for a prolonged period. Safe-haven demand is reflected in short-term Treasuries: the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF (T-bill holdings) yields 3.55% annually, paid monthly. Elevated oil risks could pressure equities, inflation expectations and rates, prompting flows into T-bills and other defensive assets.

Analysis

The S&P 500 is down 5% from its high and could drop further if the Iran conflict keeps oil prices elevated for a prolonged period. Safe-haven demand is reflected in short-term Treasuries: the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury ETF (T-bill holdings) yields 3.55% annually, paid monthly. Elevated oil risks could pressure equities, inflation expectations and rates, prompting flows into T-bills and other defensive assets.