How Michael MacMillan aims to make Blue Ant into another billion-dollar media business

Blue Ant Media is gaining traction through acquisitions and evergreen content, with revenue rising 82% year over year in the latest quarter to just under $70 million. Love Nature revenue increased from roughly $14 million in fiscal 2020 to $37 million in 2024, and Fairfax provided a $34.7 million value assurance payment after acquisition thresholds were not met, adding liquidity. Analysts at ATB Cormark have buy ratings with price targets of $17 to $18.50 per share versus a recent stock price of $6.30.

Analysis

The important signal is not that Blue Ant is “cheap” on current EBITDA, but that the asset mix is becoming more financeable at a much higher multiple once acquisition cadence proves repeatable. Evergreen, non-time-specific content has a much longer monetization tail than scripted originals, so each incremental library purchase should raise forward visibility and improve the company’s ability to lever content across FAST, AVOD and licensing without commensurate production risk. That creates a valuation pathway where the market rerates the platform before the earnings base fully catches up.

The second-order effect is on content supply, not just viewership. If Blue Ant can reliably aggregate mid-market libraries and unscripted producers, it becomes a consolidator of stranded assets that larger streamers and broadcasters no longer want to carry on balance sheet. That could compress pricing for smaller independent producers over the next 6-18 months, while improving bargaining power for distributors that can package niche audiences at scale.

Fairfax’s role matters because it effectively turns Blue Ant into a quasi-supported roll-up with patient capital, reducing refinancing risk and allowing management to buy through cyclical dislocation. The hidden risk is integration: the thesis works only if acquired libraries can be cross-sold globally fast enough to prevent dilution from tuck-ins. If ad-supported streaming monetization slows or FAST ad loads fail to scale, the multiple expansion could stall even if reported revenue keeps rising.

The market may be underestimating how much of this is a balance-sheet story disguised as a media story. The biggest catalyst over the next 2-4 quarters is not a hit show, but proof that each acquisition increases per-share economics faster than shares outstanding or overhead. Conversely, any stumble in post-deal EBITDA conversion would likely re-rate the stock back toward a pure-content multiple, which is materially lower.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long FFH.TO as the cleaner, lower-volatility expression of the Blue Ant roll-up thesis; use a 6-12 month horizon and view downside as capped by Fairfax’s support, while upside comes from incremental value creation at the holding level.
• Speculative long THBRF on a 3-6 month horizon into the next acquisition/update cycle; risk/reward is attractive if management keeps compounding revenue through M&A, but position size should stay small given integration and liquidity risk.
• Pair trade: long FFH.TO / short a basket of structurally challenged small-cap media names over 6-9 months; the trade expresses the view that patient capital and acquisition optionality will outperform standalone content operators with weaker balance sheets.
• Do not chase GS on this headline; any benefit is second-order and likely already embedded in broader capital markets activity, making the risk/reward unattractive versus direct exposure.
• If THBRF rerates sharply on deal announcements, consider selling upside via call spreads rather than outright shorting; the thesis has real strategic merit, but the stock’s small base makes it vulnerable to squeeze-driven spikes.