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Morning Bid: Three-alarm fire as tech selloff resumes, Takaichi stimulus lands

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Morning Bid: Three-alarm fire as tech selloff resumes, Takaichi stimulus lands

Global markets slid as a renewed US tech selloff erased the respite from strong Nvidia results and left investor confidence fragile; European futures were down about 1.4% while Asia‑Pacific equities ex‑Japan fell 2.5% (weekly -3.7%) and the Nikkei dropped 2.4% (weekly -3.5%). Markets were further jolted by explicit intervention warnings from Japan’s finance minister and a surprise ¥-focused stimulus package of roughly $135 billion from the Takaichi administration, while October core CPI accelerated to 3.0% year‑on‑year, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan and lifting the yen to roughly 157.19 per dollar. Commodities were softer—Brent fell to $62.54/bbl (-1.3%) and gold dipped 0.7%—and a fire at the COP30 venue disrupted climate talks; US S&P 500 futures were modestly higher (e‑mini +0.4%). Key near‑term market drivers include European and UK flash PMIs, UK public borrowing and retail sales, and upcoming UK short‑term debt auctions.

Analysis

Nvidia's strong earnings provided only a temporary lift as a renewed US tech selloff erased much of the respite, leaving S&P 500 e-mini futures modestly higher (+0.4%) but well below recent highs and European futures (Euro Stoxx 50, DAX) down about 1.4%. Asia-Pacific equities ex-Japan plunged 2.5% on the day (weekly -3.7%) while the Nikkei fell 2.4% (weekly -3.5%), underscoring a broad risk-off move despite pockets of dip-buying. Markets were jolted by explicit intervention talk from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and a surprise ~ $135 billion stimulus from the Takaichi administration, moves that have pummelled Japanese government bonds and pressured the yen even as core CPI accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year in October, above the BOJ's 2% target; the yen strengthened 0.2% to 157.19 per dollar amid safe-haven flows. This combination raises the probability of policy volatility (FX intervention and BOJ reaction), which is a near-term directional risk for global rates and carry trades. Commodity markets softened with Brent down 1.3% to $62.54/bbl and gold off 0.7% to $4,059.27/oz, and a fire at the COP30 venue added an extra geopolitical/operational shock that can exacerbate sentiment-driven moves. Sentiment is moderately negative and the market-impact signals point to elevated intraday volatility around upcoming economic prints. Key near-term catalysts to watch are UK and eurozone flash PMIs, UK public borrowing and retail sales, and short-term UK debt auctions; these data and auctions will likely dictate whether the current risk-off phase deepens or stabilizes. Investors should assume higher volatility and prioritize liquidity and hedging until macro and policy direction clarify.