The War Isn't Over And Markets Don't Care

Oil prices have rebounded above $100 per barrel as the U.S.-Israel-Iran ceasefire appears to be breaking down, with physical market prices now materially above futures. The widening premium in prompt crude signals severe near-term scarcity and heightened supply disruption risk. The geopolitical backdrop is driving a broad risk-off tone and could keep pressure on energy-sensitive assets and inflation expectations.

Analysis

Oil prices have rebounded above $100 per barrel as the U.S.-Israel-Iran ceasefire appears to be breaking down, with physical market prices now materially above futures. The widening premium in prompt crude signals severe near-term scarcity and heightened supply disruption risk. The geopolitical backdrop is driving a broad risk-off tone and could keep pressure on energy-sensitive assets and inflation expectations.