SpaceX Could IPO in June at a $1.75 Trillion Valuation. Here Is 1 Stock to Buy Before It Does.

SpaceX is being positioned for a potential 2026 IPO with speculative valuations rising as high as $1.75 trillion and reports it could raise about $50 billion in new capital. The company reportedly earned roughly $8 billion in profit on $15–16 billion of revenue last year, enabling investment in speculative projects such as orbital AI data centers and Moonbase Alpha; Morningstar flags feasibility concerns, estimating ~6,667 Starship flights annually would be required. Nvidia (NVDA) is identified as the primary beneficiary given ~85% AI GPU market share and industry chip spending exceeding $600 billion this year, implying a material portion of IPO-driven capex could flow to NVIDIA hardware.

Analysis

The headline story creates a durable demand tail for Nvidia beyond the immediate hype: large incremental capital devoted to ambitious compute projects compresses the elective replacement cycle for high-end GPUs and forces customers to pre-pay or secure multi-quarter allocations. If even a single-digit percentage of a sizeable new-cap raise flows to accelerators, it implies orders measured in tens of thousands of H100/H200-class units — enough to move ASPs, stretch foundry queues, and lift margins for upstream suppliers.

Second-order winners are the foundry and equipment ecosystem (advanced logic fabs, EUV lithography, HBM memory, and advanced packaging). That concentration amplifies two dynamics: (1) pricing power for scarce components and (2) tactical supply-chain bifurcation where hyperscalers and deep-pocketed entrants secure capacity with long-term contracts. Conversely, small AI-chip challengers and pure-play orbital compute micro-cap vendors will see their optionality priced down if NVDA/TSMC/ASML capacity becomes a gating constraint.

Key risks and catalysts are orthogonal to the PR narrative. Near-term moves in GPU lead times, TSMC capacity announcements, export-control updates, and NVDA quarterly guidance will drive price discovery over months; technical and regulatory hurdles for orbital compute (launch cadence, radiation-hardening, downlink economics) keep meaningful realization multiple years out. A sudden macro capex unwind, a breakthrough in domain-specific accelerators, or tighter export controls are realistic reversal scenarios that could compress multiples quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NVDA (equity) — 12–24 month core position, size 2–4% AUM. Rationale: structural GPU scarcity and ecosystem lock-in. Risk management: buy 3–6 month 5–10% OTM puts sized to cover 25–50% of position to limit drawdown; expected payoff asymmetric (30–80% upside if capex cycle persists, limited by valuation risk).
• Buy NVDA long-dated calls (LEAPs) — 18–36 month expiries, small notional (1% AUM) to capture multi-year structural demand without full equity exposure. Use 2:1 call-spread structures (buy lower-strike LEAP / sell higher strike) to cap cost and improve skew; reward is convex to continued capacity tightness, main risk is time and competition eroding premium.
• Long ASML (ASML) or TSMC (TSM) — 12–36 month supply-chain trade, size 1–3% AUM. Rationale: tooling and fab capacity are the choke points; these names benefit from multi-year investment cycles. Risks: cyclical capex pullback or technology displacements; target return 20–40% if the build cycle continues.
• Buy Micron (MU) or other HBM memory exposed names — 12–24 months, tactical overweight (1–2% AUM). Rationale: HBM scarcity and pricing leverage to accelerated accelerator deployments. Risk: new capacity announcements or alternative memory architectures that relieve shortage.