Strong Jobs Report — But Recession Risk Is Still 40%

Mark Zandi says the latest jobs report still leaves him with a 40% recession probability, underscoring ongoing downside risk in the U.S. economy. The commentary points to close attention on labor-market data, inflation, and policy implications rather than any immediate catalyst. Market impact is limited but the macro read-through is modestly risk-off for cyclical assets.

Analysis

Mark Zandi says the latest jobs report still leaves him with a 40% recession probability, underscoring ongoing downside risk in the U.S. economy. The commentary points to close attention on labor-market data, inflation, and policy implications rather than any immediate catalyst. Market impact is limited but the macro read-through is modestly risk-off for cyclical assets.