Quantum Computing Stocks: Third Quarter Earnings Preview

Quantum computing stocks, largely unprofitable and highly volatile, are approaching Q3 earnings with investors prioritizing revenue growth and loss reduction amidst commercialization uncertainty. IonQ is projected for significant revenue growth to $27 million despite a widening loss, while D-Wave anticipates narrowing losses on 62% revenue growth to $3 million. Rigetti expects an improved loss but a revenue dip, and Quantum Computing forecasts stable losses with 16% revenue growth. The sector's high volatility is exacerbated by competition from tech giants, though some firms like D-Wave and Rigetti have experienced substantial share price appreciation in 2025.

Analysis

Quantum computing stocks are entering Q3 earnings season largely unprofitable and characterized by high volatility, with investor focus primarily on revenue growth and, secondarily, on narrowing losses. The sector's overall sentiment is 'mixed' (0.1 score), reflecting significant uncertainty surrounding commercialization timelines and intense competition from established technology giants. This speculative environment is further highlighted by the sector's tendency to trade in sympathy with AI infrastructure stocks.

IonQ (IONQ) is projected for substantial revenue growth of 5118% to $27 million, though its loss is expected to widen to 44 cents per share, attributed to an acquisition spree. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) anticipates a 62% revenue increase to $3 million and a narrowing loss of 6 cents, following a one-time adjusted profitability in the prior quarter. Conversely, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is forecast to experience a 9% revenue dip to $2.2 million, despite an expected improvement in its loss to 5 cents. Quantum Computing (QUBT) projects 16% revenue growth to $100 million with a stable 6-cent loss.

The sector exhibits extreme price volatility, as evidenced by high Average True Range (ATR) metrics, with D-Wave at 14.02% and Rigetti at 13.21%. This volatility stems from commercialization uncertainty and competitive pressures from companies like Cisco (CSCO) in quantum networking. Despite these risks, D-Wave, IonQ, and Rigetti have seen significant share price appreciation in 2025 (341%, 49%, and 190% respectively), indicating strong speculative interest and recent rebounds from support levels.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should meticulously scrutinize individual company revenue growth and loss reduction forecasts against current valuations, acknowledging the early-stage nature and high commercialization risks.
• Given the extreme volatility (high ATRs) and speculative trading patterns, implement robust risk management strategies, potentially employing options for defined risk exposure.
• Closely monitor competitive advancements from major tech players like Cisco and Nvidia, as their strategic moves in quantum technology could significantly alter the long-term landscape for pure-play quantum firms.