Nordnet: Monthly statistics December

Nordnet reported December preliminary monthly stats with 2,351,100 customers (+12.1% y/y) and 4,492,900 trades (236,500 trades/day). Net savings for December were SEK 4.4bn (down 20.0% m/m) while total net savings in 2025 reached SEK 77.8bn; savings capital stood at SEK 1,183bn (+14.6% y/y) and total lending was SEK 29.2bn (+1.6% y/y). Trading activity fell versus November (-11.1% total trades and -15.0% traded value), though customer growth and AUM expansion point to continued platform traction across the Nordics.

Analysis

Market structure: Nordic retail investing remains structurally stronger—customers +12.1% y/y to 2.35m and AUM SEK 1,183bn—while activity is seasonally soft (trades/day -6.4% MoM, traded value -15% MoM). Winners are custody/AUM businesses and mortgage lenders (mortgages +7.5% y/y to SEK 12.0bn) that earn stable NII; losers are pure trade-fee dependent brokers and high-beta trading services whose revenue scales with daily volumes.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are regulatory tightening on margin lending or retail marketing (could cut margin lending >several percent), and an abrupt market volatility spike that forces deleveraging of SEK 17.3bn margin loans. Immediate risk (days–weeks) is continued seasonal volume drag; short-term (1–3 months) risk is earnings misses from lower trading revenue; long-term (quarters) is secular adoption of low-fee passive products compressing per-customer revenue.

Trade implications: Favor balance-sheet-rich financials and exchange/custody exposures over pure-play trading platforms. Tactical overlay: long Nordic bank/mortgage names (capture rising deposit balances and mortgage growth) and hedge/short commission-driven brokers; use options to express asymmetric downside protection on brokerage shorts and leveraged calls on banks into H1 earnings (3–6 months).

Contrarian angle: The market understates recurring revenue from net savings (SEK 77.8bn YTD) and deposit stickiness—short-term volume dips look priced as structural decline. If net monthly savings stays >SEK 2.5bn for two more months, fintech valuation gap vs incumbent banks is likely compressible; conversely, a two-month drop below SEK 2bn would validate a deeper retrenchment in retail activity.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 3% portfolio long in a Swedish bank basket: SEB-A.ST, SWED-A.ST, SHB-A.ST (1% each) with a 3–9 month horizon to capture mortgage growth and rising deposit NII; stop-loss: -15% absolute or if aggregated Swedish mortgage growth slows to <+2% y/y over two quarters.
• Initiate a 1.5–2% short position in Interactive Brokers (IBKR) for 1–3 months to exploit lower retail trading volumes and potential QoQ trading revenue miss; cover if IBKR reports trading revenue +10%+ QoQ or implied volatility in US broker equities spikes >50% from baseline.
• Pair trade: Long SEB-A.ST 2% / Short IBKR 1% to express custody/deposit resilience vs commission-dependent trading platforms; rebalance after Q1 earnings or if Nordnet monthly net savings falls below SEK 2bn for two consecutive months.
• Buy a 3-month SEB-A.ST call spread (buy 0–5% OTM, sell 10% OTM) sized ~0.5–1% portfolio to capture upside into H1 results, financed by selling a 3-month 15% OTM put on IBKR (~0.5% notional) to hedge brokerage downside and exploit elevated directional risk asymmetry.