H.C. Wainwright sets $21 target for Trevi Therapeutics stock

H.C. Wainwright initiated coverage on Trevi Therapeutics (TRVI) with a Buy rating and a $21 price target, citing the potential of its drug Haduvio for refractory chronic cough (RCC) and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis chronic cough (IPF-CC); Wainwright sees a derisked path to approval for RCC based on compelling Phase 2a data and estimates potential revenue exceeding $1 billion for RCC alone. Trevi's Q1 2025 EPS loss was narrower than expected, and analysts from B.Riley, Stifel, and Raymond James also maintain Buy ratings with price targets ranging from $15 to $29, following positive Phase 2a RIVER trial data showing significant cough reduction and improved patient quality of life.

Analysis

H.C. Wainwright's initiation of coverage on Trevi Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TRVI) with a Buy rating and a $21.00 price target underscores the significant perceived potential in its lead product, Haduvio, targeting refractory chronic cough (RCC) and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis chronic cough (IPF-CC). Analysts cite the compelling Phase 2a RIVER trial data for RCC, which showed a 67% reduction in 24-hour cough frequency (57% placebo-adjusted), suggesting a more derisked path to approval than reflected in the current market valuation of $626.75 million; this RCC indication alone holds an estimated revenue potential exceeding $1 billion. The IPF-CC indication, with Phase 2b CORAL trial data anticipated later this quarter, also presents a substantial, potentially over $1 billion, revenue opportunity, which Trevi might commercialize independently due to its orphan drug status. This optimistic outlook is bolstered by Trevi's robust financial health, indicated by a current ratio of 15.38, and a narrower-than-expected Q1 2025 net loss of $10.4 million with an EPS of -$0.09, surpassing forecasts. The broader analyst community echoes this positive sentiment, with B.Riley, Stifel, and Raymond James maintaining Buy/Strong Buy ratings and price targets ranging from $15 to $29, further supported by Haduvio's strong efficacy signals and the stock's impressive 140% return over the past year. The drug’s dual mechanism of action also suggests potential applicability across a wider array of interstitial lung diseases.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider Trevi Therapeutics based on the strong analyst consensus, promising Phase 2a clinical data for Haduvio in refractory chronic cough, and its multi-billion dollar revenue potential across two distinct indications.
• The upcoming top-line data from the Phase 2b CORAL trial for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis chronic cough, expected later this quarter, represents a significant near-term catalyst that warrants close attention, as it could further de-risk the asset and materially impact valuation.
• Given the company's strong liquidity position (current ratio of 15.38), the perceived 'derisked' pathway for Haduvio in RCC, and management's confidence, initiating or adding to positions could be considered, while continually monitoring clinical trial progress, safety data, and developments regarding potential international partnerships.