November Nymex natural gas prices declined 2.89% to a three-week low, primarily driven by forecasts for mild US weather expected to limit heating demand and robust domestic production, which is near record highs. This bearish sentiment was reinforced by the EIA's upward revision of its 2025 production forecast to 107.14 bcf/day and higher-than-expected inventory builds, indicating ample supplies despite increased LNG exports.
November Nymex natural gas (NGX25) prices declined sharply by 2.89% to a three-week low, primarily driven by forecasts for mild US weather through late October, which is expected to limit heating demand. This bearish pressure is compounded by robust domestic production, currently near record highs. The overall sentiment for natural gas is strongly negative, with a bearish tone. Supply-side strength is evident, with the EIA raising its 2025 US natural gas production forecast by 0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day. US dry gas production stands at 106.7 bcf/day (+3.8% y/y), while active US nat-gas rigs recently posted a 2-year high of 120, indicating sustained output capacity. Weak demand further exacerbates the oversupply, with lower-48 state gas demand down 7.8% year-over-year at 66.4 bcf/day. This led to a significant inventory build of +80 bcf, exceeding the market consensus of +77 bcf, pushing total inventories 4.5% above their 5-year seasonal average and signaling adequate supplies despite a 7.7% week-over-week increase in LNG net flows.
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strongly negative
Sentiment Score
-0.75
Ticker Sentiment
