Is Now the Time to Buy 3 of the S&P 500's Worst-Performing Stocks of 2025?

Three S&P 500 constituents—Deckers Outdoor, The Trade Desk and Fiserv—suffered steep declines in 2025, down roughly 49%, 68% and 67% respectively, driven by distinct headwinds. Deckers faced import tariffs that forced price increases and slowing growth (net sales $1.4bn, +9% YoY vs >20% a year earlier; P/E ~16), Trade Desk saw slowing revenue growth (revenue $739m, +18% YoY vs 27% prior) and a CFO departure while trading at ~43x trailing earnings amid rising competition from Amazon, and Fiserv reported flat top-line results, leadership changes, lowered guidance and Argentina-related pressures while trading at ~10x earnings. Together the cases highlight tariff and supply‑chain pressures, intensifying ad-market competition, and earnings/guidance risks that remain relevant for portfolio positioning.

Analysis

Market structure: Tariff-driven input-cost shocks (Deckers) and concentration in ad platforms (Trade Desk) reallocate pricing power to vertically integrated incumbents (Amazon, Google). Deckers’ P/E compression to ~16 vs S&P 25 signals investor de-rating of brand-led discretionary names when input-cost pass-through is constrained; Fiserv’s collapse reflects idiosyncratic country FX risk plus secular payments commoditization. Cross-asset: sustained tariff inflation would push near-term CPI +25–75bp, pressuring front-end yields and EM FX (Argentina) while lifting commodity-sensitive sectors and hedges (gold, USD).

Risk assessment: Tail risks include tariff escalation (high-impact, <12 months) and accelerated platform antitrust actions that could materially reassign ad spend (6–18 months). Immediate (days) risks are earnings/CFO departures and Q1 ad budgets; short-term (weeks–months) exposure centers on guide cuts and client waterfall effects; long-term depends on structural ad-share shifts and tariff resolution (12–36 months). Hidden dependencies: Deckers’ inventory sourcing windows (lead times 3–9 months) and Fiserv’s clearing exposure to ARS liquidity are second-order vectors that can amplify earnings misses. Key catalysts: tariff negotiations, Trade Desk executive roadmap and Amazon ad product launches — watch next 2 quarters.

Trade implications: Establish a small, asymmetric set of positions. Tactical long DECK 1–2% portfolio weight for 12–24 months (stop -30%, target +50% if tariffs rollback or comps beat), paired with a cautious 3-month covered-call program to monetize time decay. Short TTD 1.5% vs long AMZN 1.0% (6–12 months) to express platform share shift; hedge with 3–6 month TTD put spread (10–20% OTM) to limit episodic gamma. For FISV, buy 9–12 month call spread (1% weight, 20–30% OTM) to play valuation mean reversion while capping downside.

Contrarian angles: Consensus prices permanent market-share loss for DECK and overstates Fiserv’s EM risk; in past tariff cycles (2018–2020 style) consumer brands often recovered margins within 6–12 months via repricing and mix. Reaction to TTD’s governance noise may be overdone — if management stabilizes and growth re-accelerates >25% YoY or gross margin expands >200bps, cover shorts within 30 days. Risks to contrarian longs: protracted tariffs, a surprise Amazon ad push that materially undercuts programmatic CPMs, or a new Argentina currency shock — each should trigger checklist-based exits.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 1–2% portfolio long position in DECK with a 12–24 month horizon; implement a protective stop at -30% and sell 1–3 month covered calls to generate income while waiting for tariff resolution or margin recovery (target +50% upside).
• Establish a relative-value pair: short TTD sized at 1.5% of portfolio and long AMZN ad exposure sized at 1.0% for 6–12 months; add a 3-month TTD put spread (10–20% OTM) to cap risk and tighten position if TTD revenue growth re-accelerates above 25% or margin expands >200bps (close shorts).
• Allocate 1% to a 9–12 month FISV call spread (20–30% OTM) to play low absolute valuation (P/E ~10) while limiting downside; close or reassess if FISV guidance remains flat for two consecutive quarters or Argentina-related losses exceed 5% of revenue.
• Reduce broader adtech/growth exposure by 2–4% and redeploy into domestically-sourced consumer names and select value financials (increase cash + investment-grade duration by 1–2%) to hedge tariff-driven CPI risk over next 6–12 months.
• Monitor three crisp catalysts over the next 30–90 days: (1) US tariff negotiation headlines (any rollback → trim hedges), (2) TTD management/CFO replacement and next-quarter guide (positive guide → cover part of shorts), (3) FISV Argentina P&L disclosure or central-bank action (worse than -5% revenue hit → sell longs).