RAN Market Growth Continues in 2Q 2026, According to Dell'Oro Group

Dell'Oro reports RAN market revenues rose modestly year-over-year in 2Q 2026, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth after more than two years of contraction. Results were slightly above expectations, with Huawei outperforming while Ericsson was softer, though overall supplier rankings stayed unchanged and top-5 vendors (Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, Samsung) held 96% of 1H26 revenue. The 2026 outlook remains broadly flat, implying stabilization but not a full recovery yet.

Analysis

This is a better read on industry digestion than on a new growth cycle. A multi-quarter stabilization in RAN tells you the sector has likely stopped destroying estimates, but the unchanged full-year outlook implies pricing power and volume recovery are still too weak to drive meaningful multiple expansion. In practice, that favors the lowest-cost, highest-scale vendors and leaves the weaker Western names vulnerable to headline-driven pops that fade once investors realize the market is still flat.

The competitive read-through is more important than the top-line print: a strong quarter for one large incumbent while another underperforms usually means share is shifting inside a zero-sum pie, not that end-demand is materially improving. That tends to compress the valuation dispersion between leaders and laggards over time, but only if procurement remains disciplined; if carriers are still spending cautiously, vendors will lean harder on cost-outs and mix, which caps margin recovery for everyone.

For DELL specifically, the direct fundamental impact is limited. Any benefit from telco stabilization would be second-order through edge/private-5G or telecom infrastructure spending, but that is too small to move the earnings bridge unless operator capex broadens beyond maintenance. The more actionable setup is to watch whether this stabilization spreads into 2027 budgets; if it does not, the current narrative is mostly a trough-management story rather than a real upcycle.

The contrarian view is that the market may be over-optimizing the phrase 'stabilization.' Three quarters of slight growth after a deep drawdown often look better in trend terms than in dollar terms, and flat 2026 guidance suggests the earnings base is not yet inflecting. If anything reverses this thesis, it will be evidence of sustained order acceleration or a cleaner regional mix, not another modest revenue beat.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No direct trade in DELL on this note; treat as a watch item only. The read-through to Dell Technologies is too indirect unless telco/edge demand begins showing up in revenue mix over the next 1-2 quarters.
• Use any 5-10% rally in ERIC or NOK to initiate a short or add to an existing underweight, with a 1-3 month horizon. Thesis: the market is pricing a cycle turn, but the flat 2026 revenue outlook limits upside and leaves room for estimate resets if regional demand stays uneven.
• Pair trade: long Huawei-exposed/China infrastructure suppliers is not investable directly; for public markets, consider long a broader telecom capex beneficiary basket only if order data confirms a 2027 spend rebound. Until then, avoid paying up for 'stabilization' narratives.
• Set an alert on carrier capex commentary in upcoming earnings for AT&T, Verizon, and European operators. A confirmed 2027 budget inflection would be the real catalyst; absent that, this is a range-trading environment, not a trend trade.
• If you want to express the contrarian view with options, use a short-dated call spread sale on ERIC into strength rather than outright shorting. Risk/reward improves if the stock gaps on headline optimism while fundamentals remain flat.