Corn Bulls Taking Losses Back on Friday Morning

Corn futures are up 5-6 cents Friday morning, rebounding from Thursday's 3-4 cent decline, despite weak USDA export sales data. Old crop corn export sales for the week ending July 10 hit a marketing year low of 97,600 MT, significantly below trade expectations of 500k-1.2M MT, though new crop sales were within range. This weak demand, coupled with spillover pressure from wheat and continued wet weather forecasts for the Corn Belt, underscores underlying market concerns despite the modest rebound.

Analysis

Corn futures are exhibiting a short-term rebound, with prices up 5 to 6 cents in Friday morning trading, recovering from a 3 to 4 cent decline the previous day. This price strength, however, contrasts sharply with fundamentally weak demand data from the USDA. Old crop corn export sales for the week ending July 10 were a marketing year low at just 97,600 metric tons (MT), significantly missing trade expectations of 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. While new crop sales of 565,900 MT fell within expectations, the abysmal old crop figure, combined with spillover pressure from the wheat market and a 4,597-contract reduction in open interest on Thursday, points to underlying market weakness. The forward-looking weather forecast presents a mixed picture, with continued wet conditions in key growing regions and above-normal temperatures expected for late July, creating uncertainty around crop development and future supply.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should treat the current price rally with caution, as it is contradicted by exceptionally weak old crop export sales data signaling a significant drop in demand.
• Closely monitor near-term weather developments in the U.S. Corn Belt, as the combination of wet conditions and high temperatures will be a primary driver of price volatility and yield expectations.
• Maintain awareness of price action in the wheat market, as the article explicitly notes its potential for spillover pressure on corn prices.