These 2 Oils and Energy Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks promotes its Earnings ESP filter — which compares the Most Accurate (most recent) analyst estimate against the Zacks Consensus to produce an ESP figure — and says combining a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better with a positive ESP historically produced positive surprises 70% of the time and delivered a 28.3% annualized return in a 10-year backtest. It highlights two energy names: FuelCell Energy (FCEL, Zacks #2 Buy) with a Most Accurate Estimate of -$0.92 vs. consensus -$1.04 (ESP +11.54%) ahead of a Dec. 18, 2025 report, and Western Midstream (WES, Zacks #3 Hold) with a MAE of $0.95 vs. consensus $0.94 (ESP +1.64%) ahead of Feb. 25, 2026. Because both stocks show positive ESPs, Zacks flags them as higher-probability candidates to beat upcoming earnings and as examples of how the ESP filter can be used to identify short-term earnings-season trading opportunities.

Analysis

Zacks Markets is promoting its Earnings ESP filter, which measures the percentage difference between the Most Accurate (most recent) analyst estimate and the Zacks Consensus to flag likely earnings surprises; the note cites that stocks with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better combined with a positive ESP produced a positive surprise 70% of the time and generated a 28.3% annualized return in a 10-year backtest. The methodology emphasises late analyst revisions as higher-information inputs and uses the Zacks Rank to strengthen selection for short-term earnings-season trades.

The piece highlights two energy names as examples: FuelCell Energy (FCEL) carries a Zacks #2 (Buy) with a Most Accurate Estimate of -$0.92 versus a consensus of -$1.04, yielding an ESP of +11.54% ahead of its December 18, 2025 release, while Western Midstream (WES) is Zacks #3 (Hold) with a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.95 versus consensus $0.94 for an ESP of +1.64% ahead of a February 25, 2026 report. Zacks frames both as higher-probability candidates to beat near-term earnings based solely on the ESP signals.

The signal-driven implication is that recent analyst revisions can create tradable short-term asymmetry, but material caveats remain: FCEL’s estimates are still losses per share despite the positive ESP, WES’s +1.64% ESP is marginal, and the backtest performance may not persist; investors should therefore treat ESP alerts as one tactical input alongside fundamentals and position-sizing controls.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider small, tactical long exposures to stocks that combine a Zacks Rank of #3 or better with a positive ESP given the historical 70% beat rate and 28.3% backtest, but limit position size and use strict risk controls because past performance is not guaranteed
• For FuelCell Energy (FCEL), given the +11.54% ESP and Zacks #2 rating but continued negative EPS estimates (Most Accurate -$0.92; Consensus -$1.04), prefer defined-risk strategies (e.g., buy-writes or limited-call spreads) or wait for the print before adding a full directional position
• For Western Midstream (WES), the +1.64% ESP is marginal; avoid large directional bets pre-report, monitor any further analyst revisions and guidance, and treat WES as a watch-list candidate rather than a high-conviction pre-earnings trade