Scott Peters makes significant trades in Kent Street O&M, Stepstone, U.S. Treasury Bills and Valo Ventures

Brent crude traded as high as $119/bbl and is hovering at a 3.5‑year high, signaling elevated energy price risk. Rep. Scott Peters filed new STOCK Act disclosures showing purchases: Kent Street O&M Holdings LLC $100,001–$250,000 (Feb 4, 2026), Stepstone Tactical Growth Fund III $1,001–$15,000 (Feb 13, 2026), Valo Ventures GP II $50,001–$100,000 (Feb 3, 2026), and a partial sale of U.S. Treasury Bills valued $500,001–$1,000,000 (Feb 19, 2026). The Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0–3 Month ETF (GBIL) trades at $100.07 near its 52‑week high of $100.26 and yields 3.29%, noted for low volatility; filings are new and the report does not disclose capital gains over $200.

Analysis

A pattern of reallocating incremental capital from ultra-short cash into GP stakes and private vehicles is a subtle signal that some informed allocators expect either (a) a long plateau in policy rates that makes term risk unattractive but yields on cash acceptable, or (b) a meaningful convexity payoff from private marks should rates inflect lower. The second‑order beneficiary is not the underlying private company but the listed fee platforms and placement agents that collect carry and management fees; that shifts the investible opportunity from picking winners in private deal flow to owning the fee‑earning wrapper.

High energy prices raise the probability of sticky core inflation, which lengthens the Fed’s optionality window and props up short cash yields; paradoxically that can shrink public market liquidity and drive more capital into illiquids, increasing GP valuation power in fundraising rounds. That dynamic creates a convex return profile for GP stakes: modest carry now from fees plus outsized upside if a rate disinflation re‑rates private marks — but also meaningful mark risk if a growth shock forces forced selling.

Regulatory and political optics are the wildcard: heightened scrutiny of elected‑official trades could spark tighter disclosure or cooling‑off rules that temporarily depress valuations for small, bespoke GP stakes and accelerate supply into secondaries. Time horizons matter — tactical cash yields dominate over 0–6 months, fee/GP re‑rating plays are 6–24 months, and regulatory re‑pricing risk can materialize in weeks to quarters and compress liquidity premia.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long GS (equity) — 6–12 month horizon. Size 1–2% NAV. Rationale: capture incremental AUM/ETF and placement fee flow if private fundraising and cash-product demand persist. Target +25% upside; protect downside (~-20%) with a 6–9 month 10% OTM put (cost ~1–1.5% of position) to cap tail risk.
• Buy listed GP managers (BX, KKR) — 12–24 month horizon. Equal-weight position representing a leveraged call on private markets fees and secondary market growth. Expect asymmetric upside (30–40% if fundraising/marks re-rate) versus 25–30% downside in a liquidity shock; finance position by selling 12‑month 20% OTM calls to improve carry.
• Overweight short-duration cash ETF (GBIL or equivalent) — 0–3 month horizon. Tactical parking of capital to lock current yield while preserving optionality for private deployments; position size 5–10% NAV. Reward: earn 3%+ carry with minimal duration risk; main risk is short-term rate volatility producing small MTM losses, manageable given yield pickup.