Analysts Estimate Nike (NKE) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Analysts anticipate Nike (NKE) will report a significant year-over-year decline in earnings of -89.1% to $0.11 per share, with revenues expected to fall 15.4% to $10.67 billion for the quarter ending May 2025. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down 2.31% in the last 30 days; however, Nike's Earnings ESP is positive at +41.47%, although its Zacks Rank of #4 makes predicting an earnings beat difficult, suggesting uncertainty around the upcoming earnings release on June 26.

Analysis

Nike (NKE) is anticipated to report a significant year-over-year contraction for its quarter ending May 2025, with consensus estimates projecting earnings of $0.11 per share, an 89.1% decrease, and revenues of $10.67 billion, a 15.4% decline. This bearish outlook is compounded by a 2.31% downward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days, reflecting increased analyst caution. Despite these negative indicators, Nike's Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is a positive +41.47%, as the Most Accurate Estimate surpasses the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting a potential for an earnings beat. However, this optimism is tempered by the company's current Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), which typically reduces the predictive accuracy of a positive ESP for an earnings surprise. Although Nike has a strong history of exceeding EPS estimates, achieving this four times in the last four quarters, including a substantial +92.86% surprise in the last reported quarter (actual $0.54 vs. expected $0.28), the combination of conflicting signals renders the outcome of the upcoming June 26 earnings release uncertain. Management's commentary on prevailing business conditions during the earnings call will be pivotal in shaping the stock's subsequent performance and future earnings expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Nike's actual earnings and revenue figures against the sharply reduced consensus estimates, as any significant deviation could trigger notable stock price volatility.
• Given the conflicting signals from a positive Earnings ESP versus a Zacks Rank #4 and negative consensus revisions, particular attention should be paid to management's forward-looking guidance and qualitative commentary on business conditions during the earnings call.
• A cautious stance may be prudent leading up to the June 26 earnings announcement, with a focus on how the company addresses the anticipated steep declines and outlines its strategies for future performance.