Samsung and Apple have finally made me consider buying a foldable

The market is likely underpricing how quickly a broader foldable form factor can shift demand from “spec novelty” to “mainstream upgrade.” A wider inner display materially improves utility density: it increases the share of sessions where the device substitutes for a tablet rather than a phone, which should raise willingness to pay and reduce buyer remorse. That matters because foldables have been constrained less by hardware quality than by the awkwardness tax; if that tax falls, the category can expand from enthusiasts to premium iPhone upgraders.

For Apple, the important second-order effect is not that a foldable iPhone will be a unit-volume juggernaut on day one, but that it can reset the premium device replacement cycle. A successful launch would let Apple extract more ASP per user while reinforcing ecosystem lock-in through a differentiated hardware experience, likely pressuring Android OEM share in the $1,200+ band over the next 12-24 months. The risk is execution: if the first-gen device is too thick, too heavy, or priced too aggressively, it could validate skepticism and delay category adoption rather than accelerate it.

Samsung and Huawei are in a race against the halo effect of Apple’s eventual entry. If Apple defines the “right” aspect ratio, incumbent Android foldables may be forced into rapid product-cycle redesigns and inventory discounting, especially for square-ish models that become visibly inferior in media use. The near-term trade is about sequencing: the brands launching before Apple have a limited window to capture demand from early adopters and clear channel inventory before the category gets re-priced by Apple’s marketing machine.

The contrarian view is that the market may be overestimating how much aspect ratio alone changes adoption. Foldables still face durability skepticism, repair-cost anxiety, and carrier subsidy dependence; those frictions don’t disappear with a better rectangle. In other words, this is likely a gradual share-shift within premium phones, not an instant category breakout, which argues for event-driven positioning rather than chasing the broad theme outright.