JEFFERIES Maintains Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Hold Recommendation

Jefferies maintained a Hold on Ferrari N.V. (RACE) on Dec. 9, 2025 while the consensus one‑year price target stood at $487.14 (range $398.92–$568.41) as of Dec. 6, implying ~32.2% upside from the $368.47 close. Street forecasts show projected annual revenue of $6,440m (down 9.0%) and non‑GAAP EPS of $8.32, and options activity (put/call 0.68) signals a mildly bullish bias. Institutional ownership is broad—1,296 funds (up 4) with average portfolio weight of 0.50% (up 4.13%)—but total institutional shares fell 1.7% to about 74.72m, with notable moves including Baillie Gifford trimming its stake to 3.942m shares while Bank of America, Amundi and BNY Mellon increased allocations materially. Taken together, analysts see significant upside potential, but Jefferies’ cautious rating, a revenue downgrade and modest institutional trimming suggest limited near‑term conviction despite positive option sentiment.

Analysis

Jefferies maintained a Hold on Ferrari N.V. (RACE) on December 9, 2025 while the Street one‑year average price target stood at $487.14 as of December 6, implying 32.21% upside from the $368.47 close and a target range of $398.92–$568.41. This disconnect — cautious analyst rating versus sizeable consensus upside — frames the current debate over valuation versus near‑term fundamentals.

Street forecasts show projected annual revenue of $6,440mm, a decline of 9.04%, and projected non‑GAAP EPS of $8.32; the revenue downgrade is the principal fundamental headwind that likely supports Jefferies’ conservative stance. The put/call ratio of 0.68 and a mildly positive sentiment score (0.22) indicate options market participants are leaning bullish, but not emphatically so.

Institutional positioning is broad but mixed: 1,296 funds hold RACE (net +4 owners) and average portfolio weight rose to 0.50% (+4.13%), while total institutional shares fell 1.70% to ~74.72m. Notable reallocations include Baillie Gifford trimming ~7.97% to 3.942m shares while Bank of America, Amundi and BNY Mellon materially increased allocations, suggesting active rebalancing rather than a clear directional conviction.

Taken together, the data point to upside potential priced by analysts but with tangible near‑term risks from weakening revenue and selective institutional trimming; the appropriate response is to watch catalysts and flow data closely before materially changing exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain a neutral to small long position given Jefferies' Hold and the projected 9.0% revenue decline despite ~32% consensus upside, avoid initiating large exposure absent confirming catalysts
• Tie any position increases to concrete positive triggers — better‑than‑expected quarterly revenue/EPS, upward analyst revisions, or sustained institutional accumulation (monitor filings from Baillie Gifford, BNY Mellon and Bank of America)
• Manage downside risk actively by sizing positions conservatively and considering hedges or limited call purchases given the mildly bullish options skew (put/call 0.68) and a recent 1.7% drop in institutional shares