These Are the Only 2 Cryptocurrencies I'm Comfortable Buying Right Now

The article argues that Bitcoin and Hyperliquid are the only two cryptocurrencies worth buying in the current bear market, citing Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply and Hyperliquid's fee-funded buyback-and-burn model. Hyperliquid handled about $237.2 billion in perpetual futures volume over the past 30 days, with 99% of trading fees used to buy back and burn HYPE, though monthly unlocks through 2027 and rising competition from regulated venues remain key risks. The piece is constructive on both assets long term, but overall cautious given crypto weakness, dilution risk, and regulatory competition.

Analysis

The market is increasingly sorting crypto into two distinct buckets: scarce monetary assets and fee-sink tokens with real capital return. The second-order implication is that speculative alt-L1s and governance tokens without embedded buybacks are likely to keep bleeding relative performance as capital rotates toward instruments with either hard supply caps or explicit distribution policies. That creates a stronger bid for BTC on any drawdown, but also a narrower opportunity set overall, which is supportive for managers who can isolate quality from narrative.

The more interesting setup is that HYPE-like models are only as durable as their buyback math. If circulating supply keeps expanding while volumes migrate to regulated competitors, the market will re-rate the token from “cash-returning asset” to “dilutive growth story” very quickly. The unlock window creates a months-long overhang, while the competitive threat is a 6-12 month problem: once Robinhood/Kalshi-style venues onboard mainstream users, liquidity and spreads can normalize fast enough to compress the decentralized premium.

A contrarian read is that the current bearishness may be over-allocating risk to Bitcoin and underpricing the survivability of the few assets with structural demand. BTC is the cleaner long because it does not depend on execution, regulation, or tokenomics to function; the main risk is opportunity cost if higher-yielding crypto capital-return vehicles continue to compound faster. By contrast, HYPE is a tactical long, not a secular core holding: it works only while buybacks outrun unlocks and market share stays sticky, which makes it vulnerable to a sharp but delayed de-rating if volume growth stalls.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long BTC on further weakness as a 12-24 month accumulation trade; best risk/reward is scaling into drawdowns rather than chasing strength, since the thesis is supply scarcity, not near-term momentum.
• Treat HYPE as a tactical trade only: hold or add on volume/share gains, but trim aggressively if buybacks stop covering unlock dilution over the next 2-3 quarters.
• Pair trade: long BTC / short a basket of high-beta alt tokens with no cash-return mechanism; this expresses the market’s move toward quality while limiting directional crypto beta.
• If accessible, buy medium-dated puts on HYPE or the most liquid proxy into any post-unlock strength; thesis is a 3-6 month de-rating window if regulated venues take share.
• Avoid initiating new longs in regulation-sensitive crypto-adjacent names until there is evidence that decentralized volume share is holding; the catalyst to reverse the trade is sustained market-share erosion, not price alone.