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Market Impact: 0.5

Cattle Posts Monday Rally

CMENDAQ
Commodities & Raw MaterialsCommodity FuturesFutures & OptionsMarket Technicals & Flows
Cattle Posts Monday Rally

Live cattle and feeder cattle futures rallied on Monday, with contracts closing up $1.07-$1.80 and $2.92-$3.50 respectively, and preliminary open interest up 2,007 contracts; the CME Feeder Cattle Index rose $1.83 to $301.13 on May 30. Cash trade saw limited activity, while boxed beef prices were mixed, with Choice boxes down $0.34 at $366.00/cwt and Select up $1.46 at $358.11/cwt; Monday's federally inspected cattle slaughter was 115,000 head, down 2,863 from last year's post-holiday week.

Analysis

Live cattle futures demonstrated upward momentum on Monday, with contracts closing $1.07 to $1.80 higher and preliminary open interest increasing by 2,007 contracts, indicating heightened market activity. Feeder cattle futures mirrored this strength, rallying $2.92 to $3.50 per contract, further supported by a $1.83 rise in the CME Feeder Cattle Index to $301.13 on May 30. While cash cattle trade remained subdued early in the week, with last week's trades ranging from $221-$223 in the South to $234-$237 in the North, the OKC feeder cattle auction showed positive price movements, with steers $5 to $12 higher and heifers steady to $4 higher. Downstream, wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed; Choice boxes edged down $0.34 to $366.00/cwt, but Select boxes rose $1.46 to $358.11/cwt, resulting in a Choice/Select spread of $7.89. A key indicator of near-term supply, Monday's federally inspected cattle slaughter was 115,000 head, marking a reduction of 2,863 head from the comparable post-holiday week in the previous year, suggesting potentially tighter cattle availability.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

moderately positive

Sentiment Score

0.55

Ticker Sentiment

CME0.40
NDAQ0.00

Key Decisions for Investors

  • Consider the current bullish momentum in cattle futures, supported by increased open interest and strong feeder cattle auction prices, as indicative of near-term market strength.
  • Monitor the impact of reduced cattle slaughter figures, which imply tighter supply, against the mixed signals from wholesale boxed beef prices, particularly the softness in Choice cuts, as this could influence price sustainability.
  • Closely watch for developments in cash cattle trading volumes and price levels, as well as subsequent slaughter data, to assess the durability of the price rally and confirm physical market fundamentals.