The Ithaka Group Q2 2026 Portfolio Review

AMD shares surged higher over the quarter as the LLM market shift is driving adoption of agentic AI workloads. Separately, CrowdStrike’s strong quarter is attributed to a narrative shift in the AI trade. In contrast, Intuitive Surgical fell ~21% after multiple contraction, only partially offset by strong forward earnings growth.

Analysis

The key market mechanism is a shift from one-off model buildout to recurring inference and orchestration spend. That broadens the winner set beyond the obvious chip leader: lower-cost accelerators, networking, memory bandwidth, and software layers that sit close to AI workloads should see better demand elasticity, while pure training-exposed names become more sensitive to capex pacing. AMD looks like the clearest second-order beneficiary because enterprise buyers want negotiating leverage and heterogeneous fleets, but the thesis only works if software compatibility and deployment friction keep improving.

CRWD benefits from the same trend through a different channel: agentic workflows expand machine identities, privilege paths, and attack surface faster than security budgets can normalize. That makes security one of the few software buckets where AI adoption can actually increase spending intensity rather than just redistribute it. The risk is competition from platform bundling; if hyperscalers or broader security suites absorb the use case, CRWD can still grow but may not sustain premium multiple expansion.

ISRG is the reminder that high-quality growth is not enough when rates or factor rotation dominate. The multiple is now the swing factor, so the next 1-3 months hinge more on duration behavior and relative positioning than on operating execution. Contrarian view: the AI trade may be underappreciating how sticky the spending cycle becomes once agents move from pilots to production, but it may be overpaying for any growth story without a visible monetization pathway. SYBT has no meaningful read-through here unless risk appetite deteriorates broadly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy AMD on 3-5% pullbacks over the next 2-4 weeks; thesis is inference/agent deployment broadening the market beyond a single vendor. Falsify if hyperscaler capex commentary softens or AMD relative strength vs SMH breaks lower.
• Add CRWD as a 1-3 month AI-security expression; expect bookings support as machine identities and automation increase attack surface. Use any post-earnings volatility to enter; thesis weakens if pipeline converts without pricing power.
• Pair trade: long CRWD / short ISRG for a 6-12 week factor spread if 10Y yields stay sticky. Upside comes from AI-linked multiple expansion; downside is a rates rally or any re-acceleration in ISRG multiple support.