‘I gave SpaceX less than a 10% chance of succeeding’: Elon Musk addresses Nasdaq ahead of SpaceX IPO

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share, raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation and making it the largest IPO in stock market history; including the 30-day greenshoe, proceeds could reach $86.25 billion. The offering was about four times oversubscribed with more than $250 billion in orders, though the company still posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 on $18.7 billion of revenue and faces risk from a grounded Starship program under FAA review. The debut could draw rapid index inclusion and significant passive flows, but Morningstar values the company far lower at $780 billion.

Analysis

The immediate winner is Nasdaq infrastructure, not just the headline stock. A mega-cap addition with fast-track index eligibility creates a short, mechanical demand window for NDAQ, and more importantly reinforces Nasdaq’s positioning as the venue for the largest, most complex capital-formation events; that should support fee mix and deepen issuer preference for the platform over the next 12 months. Goldman/Morgan Stanley and the other syndicate banks also get reputational leverage that can translate into more mandate flow in the coming IPO cycle, even if the direct economics of this deal are already locked.

The bigger second-order effect is flow displacement. If passive inclusion happens quickly, several trillion dollars of benchmark assets may be forced to own an unprofitable, highly volatile asset, which raises the probability that “index ownership” becomes a source of supply overhang rather than stable support after the first momentum burst. That dynamic is bearish for MORN on the margin: a high-profile debut that later mean-reverts tends to increase scrutiny of valuation gates, suitability, and retirement-plan exposure, which can pressure the broader index/ETF complex if the stock gaps down post-listing.

For TSLA, this is a narrative headwind rather than a direct competitive threat. SpaceX’s monetization of launch, broadband, and eventual orbital compute turns Musk’s attention and capital allocation toward a new platform, while also strengthening the market’s willingness to pay up for “optional future businesses,” which can either help multiple expansion or intensify comparison risk depending on the first few trading weeks. The key near-term catalyst is Starship/FAA resolution: if that investigation drags, the market will likely de-rate the embedded growth story within 1-3 months because the valuation is front-loading too much execution that is not yet repeatable.

The consensus is likely underpricing post-IPO path dependency. Deals this crowded often have a strong first-week print, but the more crowded the ownership and the more forceful the index bid, the more fragile the float becomes once the initial technical support fades. That makes the setup less about chasing the opening move and more about owning the plumbing around it, while fading the valuation premium if operational milestones slip.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NDAQ into first 2-4 weeks post-pricing; target 6-10% upside from enhanced issuer prestige and trading/market-data optics, with tight stop if the stock fails to hold the IPO-week high.
• Sell MORN on strength or initiate a small short against index-fund/ETF complexity exposure over 1-2 months; thesis is sentiment pressure around benchmark inclusion optics and valuation discipline, not earnings deterioration.
• Pair trade: long GS/MS basket vs short market-neutral basket of weaker trading/ECM franchises for 1-3 months; banks that led the deal should see incremental mandate/league-table benefit if the IPO summer materializes.
• Buy TSLA downside via put spreads 2-4 months out; the risk/reward improves if SpaceX capital markets success pulls attention away from Tesla while Starship delays persist.
• Avoid chasing SPCX in the first 5 trading days; if forced to own, wait for post-index-inclusion supply overhang and look for a 15-25% pullback before building a position.