Cloudberry Clean Energy ASA | Fourth quarter 2025 report

Cloudberry reported Q4 2025 consolidated revenue of NOK 213m (Q4 2024: 127m) and consolidated EBITDA of NOK 87m (58m); proportionate Q4 revenue was NOK 231m and proportionate EBITDA NOK 102m, while 2025 full-year proportionate revenue/EBITDA were NOK 697m/NOK 255m, lower than 2024 due to prior-year development gains and asset recycling but with improved underlying profitability. Production was 218 GWh in the quarter with an average realized net power price of NOK 0.79/kWh versus the Nordic system price of NOK 0.60; the company finished with a strong proportionate cash balance of NOK 891m, majority long-term debt at an all-in cost below 4%, launched a NOK 30m annual cost-reduction program, commissioned the Småvoll hydro plant, acquired the 18 MW Frostnäs wind project for EUR 0.4m and received a EUR 5m restricted-cash dividend.

Analysis

Market structure: Cloudberry’s Q4 shows an operational winner among small Nordic asset owners — high realized power price (NOK0.79/kWh vs Nordic system NOK0.60) and a strong cash position (NOK891m) shift value toward producers with flexible offtake and low fixed rates. Winners: merchant-exposed hydro/wind owners and buyers of distressed projects; losers: early‑stage developers and levered merchant operators facing higher funding costs. Cross-asset: stronger cashflows compress credit spreads for Cloudberry-like names (supporting corporate bonds) and reduce short-dated volatility in equity options; FX/commodity impact is modest but positive for NOK-linked revenues if power prices hold.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are a sharp Nordic price collapse to <NOK0.40/kWh, a rapid rise in Nordic/ECB rates (adding >200bp to debt service), or failed project delivery after FTE cuts. Immediate (days) risk: market reaction to the webcast; short-term (weeks/months): realization of NOK30m cost cuts and integration of Frostnäs; long-term (quarters/years): hydrology variability and permitting/regulatory changes. Hidden dependency: realized price hinge on contract mix and hedging not fully disclosed — if unhedged, downside is greater. Catalysts: Q1 operational metrics, forward curve moves, and any announced hedging decisions.

Trade implications: Direct long Cloudberry equity (name) as a small-cap growth/value hybrid — target tactical 2–4% portfolio exposure with 6–12 month horizon to capture NOK30m savings and Småvoll EBITDA contribution. Pair trade: long Cloudberry, short SCATC.OL (Scatec) to isolate idiosyncratic execution upside vs larger global developer risk. Options: if available, buy 9–12 month call spreads on Cloudberry to lever the thesis while capping downside; sell short-dated puts only if willing to add at 10–15% below current levels. Rotate out of hydrogen/pure‑tech plays (e.g., NEL.OL) into operational renewables.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may penalize Cloudberry for lower proportionate revenue YoY without crediting adjusted underlying EBITDA and NOK30m run‑rate savings — this is a 10–15%+ potential EBITDA re-rating if delivered. Market may be underestimating the value of sub‑4% long‑term financing and restricted-cash dividend (EUR5m) as de‑risking events. Beware that workforce cuts (≈20% FTE) can slow project pipeline and convert near-term opex savings into delayed growth; a 6–12 month re‑assessment window is prudent.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical long position in Cloudberry Clean Energy ASA equal to 2–4% of portfolio weight within 1–4 weeks ahead of the webcast/Q&A; add to position on any sell‑off >10% intraday, target 6–12 month hold to capture NOK30m annual savings and Småvoll contribution.
• Implement a pair trade: long Cloudberry (equal notional) and short SCATC.OL (Scatec) 1:1 notional to express idiosyncratic execution upside; size combined exposure to 2% net portfolio risk, reassess at earnings or if forward baseload >NOK0.75/kWh.
• If options available, buy a 9–12 month call spread on Cloudberry (buy nearer‑ATM call, sell 25–35% OTM call) sized to deliver 2:1 leverage relative to desired equity exposure; maximum loss = premium paid, target >40% upside.
• Reduce exposure to pure‑development and hydrogen names (e.g., NEL.OL) by 30% over the next 30 days and reallocate proceeds to operational Nordic renewables if 2027 baseload forward < NOK0.55/kWh or Cloudberry equity outperforms peers by >15%.