Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session

Oracle's stock has seen significant gains, up 78% so far in 2025, despite a recent 14% pullback from last month's high, with new CEOs scheduled for media appearances. Meanwhile, financial institutions Jefferies and UBS have reported exposure to the bankrupt auto parts maker First Brands, leading to notable share price declines of 15% and 2.4% respectively over four days. The market is also observing significant weakness in major consumer goods stocks like Kraft Heinz, Kimberly-Clark, and Procter & Gamble, which are hitting multi-year or recent lows, while anticipating October consumer sentiment data and the start of bank earnings season next week.

Analysis

The market is anticipating October consumer sentiment data, with a consensus forecast of 54, amid a government shutdown impacting official data releases. This occurs alongside varied bond yields, including the 10-year Treasury at 4.142%, and attractive dividend yields from high-yield corporate bond ETFs like SHYG at 7.07%.

Oracle (ORCL) shares have demonstrated significant strength, up 78% in 2025, despite a recent 14% pullback from its peak, with new CEOs scheduled for media appearances. Ahead of earnings, major banks show mixed performance; Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are up over 50% in six months, while Wells Fargo (WFC) has seen a 2% decline in three months.

Financial institutions Jefferies (JEF) and UBS (UBS) face immediate pressure, reporting exposure to the bankrupt First Brands, resulting in JEF shares dropping 15% and UBS 2.4% in four days. Concurrently, consumer staples like Kraft Heinz (KHC), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), and Procter & Gamble (PG) are hitting multi-year or recent lows, with KHC down 14% in six months, signaling broad sector weakness.

The iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) has shown robust performance, gaining nearly 28% over the past six months and trading just 1.86% off its recent high, highlighting a notable divergence in regional market strength compared to the struggling domestic consumer goods sector.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor the upcoming consumer sentiment data closely for its potential market impact, especially given the current absence of other government economic indicators.
• Review exposure to financial institutions such as Jefferies and UBS, considering their reported ties to the bankrupt First Brands and the associated share price declines.
• Re-evaluate positions in consumer staples like Kraft Heinz, Kimberly-Clark, and Procter & Gamble, given their significant underperformance and multi-year lows, and assess the sustainability of Oracle's strong year-to-date gains.
• Prepare for the upcoming bank earnings season by analyzing individual bank performance, noting the divergence between strong performers like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs and underperformers like Wells Fargo, to refine financial sector allocations.
• Consider the strong performance of Canadian equities (EWC) as a potential diversification opportunity, contrasting it with the struggling domestic consumer goods sector.