Earnings call transcript: Sobi lifts 2026 outlook after strong Q2 sales growth

Sobi reported Q2 net sales of SEK 7.8B (+29% at constant exchange rates) and expanded adjusted EBITA margin to 35% (from 34% a year earlier), supporting stronger operating cash flow of SEK 1.9B (+SEK 0.5B YoY). The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance to mid- to high teens revenue growth (from low double-digits) and lifted its adjusted EBITA margin target to the mid- to high-30s (from mid-30s), driven mainly by ALTUVOCT (+41% hemophilia A sales at CER) plus Doptelet and Gamifant. Offsetting the positive is a NASP FDA Complete Response Letter tied to manufacturing/CMC (not safety/efficacy), with management targeting resubmission within 6–12 months. Sobi shares rose 2.53% to $469.3 in premarket, reflecting investor approval of the earnings and guidance upgrade despite the regulatory setback.

Analysis

The real takeaway is that AI demand is still outrunning packaging/foundry supply, which keeps TSMC in the rare position of being able to grow volume without surrendering strategic pricing power. The first-order beneficiaries are TSMC and the advanced-capex suppliers behind it — ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC — because every incremental dollar of AI demand forces more exposure to the most capacity-constrained nodes and packaging steps. The muted equity reaction matters: the market is telling us this is no longer a surprise story, but a durability story, and durability is what usually extends estimate revisions across the semi complex for 1-3 months.

The second-order effect is margin mix: TSMC can keep revenue compounding, but the next leg of upside will be judged on how much of that growth is reinvested into new fabs, tooling, and overseas capacity. If capex accelerates faster than revenue, free cash flow can flatten even while earnings look strong, which would cap multiple expansion despite AI optimism. That is why the cleaner expression is not chasing the stock outright on strength; it is owning the infrastructure beneficiaries where the revenue is less sensitive to any one customer’s product cycle.

Contrarian view: consensus is assuming the AI supply chain is already fully owned, but the setup still favors the bottleneck. The bigger risk is not demand disappearing; it is a combination of geopolitics and capex digestion causing the market to treat TSMC as a high-quality utility rather than a growth compounder. Falsify the bullish case if the next guidance update shows gross margin pressure from capacity expansion or if advanced-node demand stops translating into packaging/tool order growth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy TSMC on any post-print weakness over the next 1-3 sessions; use a 1-3 month horizon and a stop if the stock loses its post-earnings low or next guidance revision turns incremental demand negative.
• Pair trade: long TSM / short INTC for 1-3 months to express continued foundry-share consolidation and avoid paying for the broader semi multiple.
• Add ASML or AMAT on pullbacks as a second-order beneficiary of sustained AI capex; target 3-6 months, with the thesis invalidated if TSMC comments imply capex growth is decelerating.
• If you want lower beta expression, use a call spread on TSMC with a 3-6 month expiry to capture estimate revisions while defining geopolitical downside.
• Set an alert for any sign that TSMC capex rises faster than revenue growth; that would argue for trimming longs and shifting exposure toward equipment names rather than the foundry itself.