AMGN vs. VKTX: Which Biotech Stock Is the Better Obesity Play?

Amgen (AMGN) is positioned as a more secure investment in the competitive obesity drug market, with its late-stage candidate MariTide offering a potential monthly dosing advantage and supported by a diversified portfolio, strong fundamentals, and projected 2025 sales/EPS growth of 6.7% and 6.4%. Conversely, clinical-stage Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) faces significant headwinds, including high patient dropout rates (28%) in its oral VK2735 obesity trial due to adverse events, leading to a 40% year-to-date stock decline and widening 2025 losses, positioning AMGN as the preferred, safer choice.

Analysis

Amgen (AMGN) and Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) present a stark contrast for investors seeking exposure to the burgeoning obesity drug market. Amgen, a diversified biopharmaceutical firm, offers a more stable profile, with sales growth driven by key medicines like Evenity and Repatha, new biosimilars, and the recent acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics. Its lead obesity candidate, MariTide, is in late-stage Phase III studies and holds a key potential advantage with a monthly dosing schedule, differentiating it from weekly competitors. However, its Phase II efficacy, showing up to 20% weight loss at 52 weeks, was at the lower end of investor expectations. Financially, Amgen's outlook is solid, with consensus estimates for 2025 sales and EPS growth at 6.7% and 6.4% respectively, and its stock has gained over 5% year-to-date. Conversely, clinical-stage Viking Therapeutics represents a higher-risk proposition. Its stock has plummeted 40% year-to-date following mixed results for its oral obesity drug, VK2735. While the drug showed a 12.2% weight loss at 13 weeks, a high discontinuation rate of 28% due to adverse events has raised significant concerns about its tolerability and safety profile, which could also cast a shadow on its subcutaneous formulation. Consequently, VKTX's projected loss per share for 2025 is expected to widen by 146%, reflecting its precarious dependence on clinical outcomes and lack of commercial revenue.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with a lower risk tolerance seeking exposure to the obesity market should consider Amgen, as its diversified revenue streams, positive earnings trajectory, and late-stage candidate offer a more de-risked profile compared to clinical-stage peers.
• Positions in Viking Therapeutics should be viewed as highly speculative, given the significant clinical uncertainty following the 28% patient dropout rate in its oral VK2735 trial; its future valuation is heavily dependent on overcoming these tolerability concerns in upcoming studies.
• Monitor upcoming clinical trial data as the primary catalyst for both stocks, specifically focusing on the safety profile and dosing adjustments for VKTX's VK2735 and the full Phase III efficacy data for AMGN's MariTide to assess its competitive standing against market leaders.