Nvidia stock soars after Q3 earnings, forecasts top estimates with sales for AI chips 'off the charts'

Nvidia beat Q3 estimates with EPS of $1.30 on revenue of $57.01 billion and issued a bullish Q4 revenue guide of $65 billion ±2% versus Street forecasts of $62 billion, driven by data-center sales of $51.2 billion as CEO Jensen Huang said Blackwell sales are “off the charts” and cloud GPUs are sold out; CFO Colette Kress added Blackwell Ultra is the leading architecture while China-specific H20 revenue was insignificant. The results underscore accelerating AI-driven demand and tight supply for GPUs, but shares fell about 3.2% on Thursday amid broader market weakness and notable investor selling (Peter Thiel’s fund and SoftBank), highlighting strong fundamentals alongside near-term volatility in the AI trade.

Analysis

Nvidia reported Q3 EPS of $1.30 on revenue of $57.01 billion, beating Bloomberg consensus estimates of $1.26 and $55.2 billion, while guiding Q4 revenue to $65 billion ±2% versus Street expectations of $62 billion. The data-center business drove the beat with $51.2 billion in sales versus estimates of $49.3 billion, while gaming revenue of $4.3 billion slightly missed the $4.4 billion estimate; CEO Jensen Huang said Blackwell sales are "off the charts" and cloud GPUs are sold out.

Markets reacted with a roughly 3.15% decline in NVDA shares amid broader weakness despite the strong print, and notable position exits from Peter Thiel's fund (~$100 million) and SoftBank (~$5.8 billion) highlight active investor rebalancing even as Nvidia briefly approached a $5 trillion market capitalization. Nvidia remains strong YTD (up ~37%) and over 12 months (up ~25%), while peer AMD has outperformed YTD, underscoring concentrated gains in the AI trade.

Blackwell Ultra adoption and sold-out cloud GPU inventory provide near-term revenue visibility but create execution and supply-risk tradeoffs; CFO Colette Kress also noted China-specific H20 revenue was "insignificant," limiting near-term China exposure. Investor scrutiny and commentary — including Michael Burry's public criticism of data-center accounting — introduce potential sentiment and disclosure risks that could amplify volatility despite fundamentally strong demand indicators.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider adding exposure on measured pullbacks given the beat and $65 billion guide, but size positions conservatively because NVDA has run up ~37% YTD and valuation is elevated
• Monitor data-center supply signals and Blackwell inventory reports closely — continued sell-outs support upside, while any signs of easing supply or execution issues would warrant trimming exposure
• Implement short-term hedges or reduce position concentration to protect against event-driven volatility after the large shareholder exits and the stock's intra-day weakness
• Watch corporate disclosures and third-party scrutiny related to data-center depreciation and China exposure (H20) for risks to margins and credibility, and reassess risk limits if adverse findings emerge
• Track competitor commentary and TAM estimates (e.g., AMD's data-center outlook) to inform relative positioning within the AI hardware cycle