Copper thieves blamed for frequent phone, internet outages in Gatineau

Repeated copper thefts have caused multiple phone and internet outages in Gatineau’s Plateau neighbourhood, with roughly 350 metres of cable stolen over a weekend producing a Saturday–Sunday outage that affected about 6,000 customers; Bell says this was the fourth outage in a month. Bell reported 1,275 incidents of copper theft across its network in 2025 versus about 900 in 2024 and is implementing unspecified security measures; Telus attributed the outage to vandalism. The thefts are raising operational risk for telecom infrastructure and imposing short-term disruption costs on local businesses, while rising copper prices (about $4.30/lb a year ago to ~$5.90/lb) increase the incentive for such thefts.

Analysis

Market structure: Copper-theft-driven outages create short-term winners (scrap dealers, physical copper holders, and security/repair contractors) and losers (legacy copper-dependent telcos like TU and small retailers forced to close). A ~37% YoY rise in copper ($4.30→$5.90/lb) and a ~42% uptick in reported thefts (900→1,275 incidents) shifts near-term pricing power to copper suppliers and raises local operational costs for incumbents by mid-single-digit percent of OPEX in affected corridors over months.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include aggressive regulatory responses (scrap-metal transaction controls or mandatory telco capex requirements) within 60–180 days, insurance premium spikes, or organized-crime escalation causing systemic outages. Immediate risk horizon is days (service disruptions), short-term weeks–months (rising capex/insurance and reputational hits), and long-term years (accelerated migration from copper to fiber reducing copper telecom demand).

Trade implications: Favor directional copper exposure and security/fiber equipment beneficiaries while hedging legacy-telco operational risk. Expect modest widening of telecom credit spreads and elevated options IV on TU/Telus for 30–90 days; copper futures/CFD and miners ETFs should outperform pure-play telcos if thefts and metal prices continue to rise.

Contrarian angles: Consensus treats theft as a transient law-enforcement issue; we view it as a catalyst accelerating structural capex away from copper—benefiting fiber-equipment vendors (CIEN) and miners but potentially capping copper demand from telcos over 1–3 years. If regulators clamp down on scrap flows within 3–6 months, copper volatility could spike downward as short-term speculative demand collapses, creating mean-reversion opportunities.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% net long position in COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) or a 2% position in FCX over the next 2 weeks; add another 1% if LME/CME copper breaks above $6.50/lb on continued theft data.
• Reduce direct exposure to TU by 20–25% within 30 days and hedge remaining exposure by buying a 3-month put spread on TU (buy 5% OTM, sell 10% OTM) sized to protect ~1% of portfolio notional against operational/PR shocks.
• Allocate 1% to 3-month copper call options (COMEX HG) or one-month rolling copper futures as a convex play on continued theft-driven price moves; cap initial allocation to 1% of NAV and scale on confirmed pickup in incident cadence (>10% MoM).
• Initiate a 1–2% long position in fiber-equipment vendor CIEN (Ciena) to capture accelerated fiber capex; target a 6–12 month hold and trim if telco capex guidance does not increase by at least +5% quarterly within two reporting cycles.