Why Investors Need to Take Advantage of These 2 Consumer Staples Stocks Now

Zacks is promoting its Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool as a method for identifying stocks likely to beat quarterly earnings estimates, asserting that a positive ESP combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has historically resulted in positive earnings surprises 70% of the time and 28.3% average annual returns. The tool, which compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, currently flags consumer staples companies Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Estee Lauder (EL) as having positive ESPs, suggesting potential earnings beats in their upcoming reports. ADM has a +2.66% ESP ($0.90 Most Accurate vs. $0.88 Consensus) and EL has an +11.57% ESP ($0.16 Most Accurate vs. $0.14 Consensus), both holding a Zacks Rank #3.

Analysis

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool identifies stocks with a high probability of beating quarterly earnings estimates by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Historically, combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has resulted in a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, yielding an average annual return of 28.3% over a 10-year backtest. This methodology suggests a robust indicator for potential near-term stock price movements.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), a consumer staples company, currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.66%, based on a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.90 versus a Consensus Estimate of $0.88 for its November 4, 2025, earnings. Estee Lauder (EL), another consumer staples stock, also has a Zacks Rank #3 and a higher Earnings ESP of +11.57%, with a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.16 against a Consensus Estimate of $0.14 for its October 30, 2025, report.

The positive Earnings ESPs for both ADM and EL indicate a strong likelihood of reporting earnings beats in their respective upcoming announcements. This aligns with the article's overall optimistic tone and the historical efficacy of the ESP model, suggesting these consumer staples could experience positive short-term market reactions post-earnings. While a Zacks Rank #3 typically implies in-line market performance, the positive ESP acts as a potential catalyst for outperformance.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming earnings reports for Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Estee Lauder (EL), given their positive Earnings ESPs which historically correlate with earnings beats.
• Consider the potential for short-term price appreciation in ADM and EL if they report positive earnings surprises, aligning with the 28.3% average annual returns observed by the Zacks ESP model.
• While both stocks hold a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the positive Earnings ESP introduces a specific catalyst that could lead to near-term outperformance relative to broader market expectations.