Tesla Sales Have 'Bottomed,' Says Ross Gerber As Iran War-Driven Gas Price Spike Pushes More Drivers Toward EVs

Ross Gerber said Tesla sales have 'bottomed' and are improving, citing higher gas prices and stronger EV demand as the Iran war lifts fuel costs. He also noted Tesla's Model Y remained the best-selling car globally in 2023-2025 and that sales rose in April in parts of Europe, including France and the Netherlands. Tesla shares were up 0.41% to $435.35 in after-hours trading.

Analysis

Higher fuel prices are a marginal demand tailwind for EVs, but the more important second-order effect is on shopper urgency: when gasoline spikes, the decision window compresses from “someday” to “this quarter.” That tends to lift consideration for the category before it materially changes fleet economics, which means the first beneficiaries are the highest-awareness brands with the cleanest financing offers and strongest resale narratives—Tesla first, then the broader EV complex with a lag.

The bigger competitive implication is that high gas is less about unit share expansion and more about mix: buyers trade up within EVs toward the perceived best-in-class product rather than switching from ICE to a random EV. That favors Tesla’s premium take-rate and software attach, while pressuring legacy OEM EV launches that still rely on rebates to bridge affordability. For suppliers, a demand rebound at the margin helps battery and charging names, but only if the move persists long enough to flow through dealer ordering cycles, which is usually a 4-8 week delay.

The contrarian read is that this is a sentiment-driven bounce, not yet a fundamental inflection. Tesla’s sales can look “bottomed” on a monthly compare basis even if the underlying unit trajectory is still flat to down year over year; the market will likely overreact to any stabilization in Europe or U.S. web traffic before hard delivery data confirms it. The key risk is that gasoline normalizes quickly, which would unwind the narrative in days to weeks, while any geopolitical de-escalation would remove the macro excuse faster than operating improvements can replace it.

For RACE, the link is weaker and mostly indirect: higher fuel prices may nudge affluent consumers toward EVs, but luxury demand is driven more by wealth effects and order books than operating costs, so I would not expect meaningful fundamental spillover. The cleaner read is that the market may briefly rotate toward EV beta and away from discretionary luxury auto exposure if the EV narrative gains traction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain a tactical long TSLA into the next 2-6 weeks, but size modestly; use strength to sell upside call spreads rather than chasing common, because the thesis is catalyzed by gasoline and can reverse quickly if fuel prices ease.
• Pair trade: long TSLA / short a basket of lagging legacy OEM EV names over the next 1-2 months, targeting relative outperformance if high gas persists; stop if gasoline drops sharply or if delivery data fails to confirm the narrative.
• Consider long-dated TSLA call spreads for a 3-6 month horizon, funded by selling near-term upside, to express a convex response to sustained fuel inflation without paying full premium for headline volatility.
• Avoid adding to RACE on this catalyst; the move is too indirect and the stock is more exposed to broader luxury-demand and FX factors than to gasoline-driven EV substitution.
• Watch for a reversal trigger: if retail gasoline falls back meaningfully over the next 2-4 weeks, reduce TSLA momentum exposure aggressively because the demand-support story is likely to fade before fundamental revisions show up.