BigBear.ai and UiPath represent two distinct plays on enterprise AI: BigBear.ai sells edge-deployed AI modules and has leaned on acquisitions (Pangiam for $70M, pending Ask Sage for ~$250M) and a new CEO to drive growth, but its core business has stalled—revenue barely rose from $146M in 2021 to $158M in 2024, management now guides 2025 revenue down 11–21% to $125–$140M, gross margin has slipped to 22.8%, and it remains unprofitable; the market values BigBear.ai at an enterprise value of $3.1B (~19x next-year sales). By contrast, UiPath, the RPA market leader, still shows healthy organic growth (revenue from $608M in FY2021 to $1.4B in FY2025, guidance for ~11–12% revenue growth in FY2026), an 85% adjusted gross margin, recent GAAP profitability, and analyst expectations for continued revenue and EPS expansion—its EV is ~$8.4B (about 5x next-year sales). Given UiPath’s stronger margins, profitability, scale in a rapidly expanding RPA market, and much lower revenue multiple, the article concludes UiPath is the superior investment today.
BigBear.ai has underperformed its early promises with core revenue rising only from $146 million in 2021 to $158 million in 2024, and management guiding 2025 revenue down 11%–21% to $125–$140 million; the company has leaned on acquisitions (Pangiam for $70 million and a pending ~ $250 million Ask Sage deal expected to close by end-2025/early-2026) and a new CEO, yet backlog fell from $385 million to $376 million and gross margin compressed 240 basis points to 22.8% in the first nine months of 2025, leaving it unprofitable and dependent on successful integration of deals that currently support a 2026 analysts’ rebound to $164 million but a 2027 dip to $162 million. UiPath remains the RPA market leader with revenue rising from $608 million in FY2021 to $1.4 billion in FY2025 (24% CAGR) and guidance for ~11%–12% revenue growth to nearly $1.6 billion in FY2026; adjusted gross margin held at 85% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, the company returned to GAAP profitability, and analysts project FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS growth of ~9% and 13% respectively, supported by a Grand View Research estimate of a 43.9% CAGR for the RPA market from 2025–2030. Valuation and risk profile favor UiPath: BigBear.ai’s enterprise value of $3.1 billion implies ~19x next-year sales versus UiPath’s $8.4 billion EV at ~5x next-year sales, making UiPath the more compelling risk-adjusted buy given scale, margins, and profitability, while BigBear.ai’s outlook is weighed down by government contract consolidation, acquisition execution risk, and weak organic growth; investors should still monitor UiPath’s revenue deceleration trends, competitive pressure from generative AI, and management stability as downside catalysts.
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mildly positive
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0.25
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