Soybeans Fall Below $10 Through November

Soybean futures experienced a significant decline on Wednesday, with nearby contracts falling 13-14 cents and the national cash price dropping 16.5 cents to $9.30 3/4, while soymeal also weakened. This downturn was primarily attributed to updated 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop estimates from Datagro and Safras & Mercado, projecting substantially higher production at 182.9 MMT and 179.87 MMT respectively, signaling increased global supply. Market participants are now anticipating Thursday's USDA Export Sales data, with old crop soybean bookings expected between 100,000-300,000 MT.

Analysis

Soybean futures experienced a significant sell-off, with nearby contracts declining 13 to 14 cents and the national average cash price falling 16.5 cents to $9.30 ¾. This bearish momentum is primarily driven by updated, robust production forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 crop from both Datagro and Safras & Mercado, which project output at 182.9 MMT and 179.87 MMT, respectively. These figures signal a substantial increase in future global supply, as Datagro's estimate is well above its 173.5 MMT forecast for the 2024/25 crop. Within the soy complex, the weakness was concentrated in soybeans and soymeal, the latter falling $1.40 to $2.00 per ton. In contrast, soy oil futures demonstrated notable strength, gaining 66 to 84 points, indicating a divergence in market sentiment between the protein and oil components. Market participants are now focused on the upcoming USDA Export Sales report, with analysts anticipating old crop bookings between 100,000 and 300,000 MT, which will serve as the next key catalyst for price discovery.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong bearish sentiment fueled by expectations of a large Brazilian crop, investors should be cautious of sustained upward price movements and monitor for potential selling pressure on any rallies.
• Pay close attention to the forthcoming USDA Export Sales data, as a result outside the consensus range of 100,000-600,000 MT for new crop sales could significantly influence short-term price direction.
• Consider the notable divergence between weakening soymeal and strengthening soy oil prices, which may present opportunities for crush spread traders favoring the oil component over meal.