After an 83% Correction, Where Will NuScale Power Stock Be in 3 Years?

NuScale Power shares have surged more than 1,800% from early 2024 to summer 2025, but have since slumped more than 80% amid weakening investor enthusiasm. The article attributes the rebound to AI-driven data-center energy demand and advances/approval for its SMR designs (including upscaled design approval in 2025), but highlights execution risk: project delays/cancellations (e.g., Romania completion pushed from 2030 to 2034) and likely no operational facilities by end of the decade. Near-term catalysts are framed around potential power-purchase agreement news for a 6GW Tennessee Valley Authority SMR project as early as December, but the stock is expected to remain highly volatile as confidence in the pipeline swings.

Analysis

SMR still trades like a long-dated call option on a technology rollout, while the market keeps pricing it closer to an operating power developer. That mismatch matters because the balance of outcomes is dominated by financing, permitting, and execution delay; every quarter of slippage lowers present value and raises dilution risk before any material revenue shows up. In other words, the stock can squeeze on headline momentum, but the fundamental bridge to cash flow remains very long.

The cleaner beneficiaries are the assets that can monetize AI power demand now: existing nuclear fleet owners, uranium supply, and grid-scale baseload providers that can sign capacity today rather than promise it years out. Pure-play SMR developers are the most exposed to the first-of-a-kind discount, and if hyperscalers need power on an immediate timetable they will likely favor faster substitutes—uprates, gas-backed capacity, or existing reactors—before betting on new-build modular units. The near-term catalyst is a contract headline; the structural risk is that no bankable backlog emerges before the market refocuses on cash burn.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating long SMR here; the risk/reward is poor until a signed PPA or financing package converts narrative into backlog, with downside likely to reprice fast on any delay.
• Short SMR into any rally tied to TVA or AI-power headlines; use a 1-3 month horizon and cover if the company discloses firm contractual terms or non-dilutive funding.
• Pair trade: long URA or CCJ vs short SMR over 3-6 months to express the view that the broad nuclear theme is real, but the highest-multiple pure play still has the weakest execution path.
• Watch CEG and other operating nuclear generators as the more immediate AI-power beneficiary; if utilities start re-rating on contracted capacity while SMR lags, rotate capital toward cash-generative names.
• Set a hard thesis-failure alert on any credible multi-year project schedule plus non-dilutive project finance; absent that, treat SMR as a trading vehicle, not a core fundamental long.