2 Major Stocks Want to Dominate the GLP-1 Market. Which One Looks Like the Leader Heading Into 2026?

Eli Lilly has pulled ahead in the GLP-1 market as tirzepatide generated $24.8 billion in revenue through the first nine months of 2025, making it the world’s best‑selling drug, and the company has a deep pipeline including phase‑3 orforglipron (oral GLP‑1) and phase‑3 retatrutide (triple agonist) that bolster its near‑term dominance. Novo Nordisk has seen share fall to 49.3% from 55.7% year‑over‑year, prompting guidance revisions, label expansions for semaglutide (including metabolic dysfunction‑associated steatohepatitis) and a $349/month cash price for Wegovy/Ozempic to broaden access and combat compounding competitors, while it advances its own triple‑ and dual‑agonist programs. The piece concludes Lilly is the superior growth investment given its rapid revenue and earnings expansion despite a richer 32x forward multiple versus Novo’s 12x (healthcare average 18.1x), although Novo remains a value‑oriented option with a durable franchise and pipeline.

Analysis

Eli Lilly has taken a clear lead in the GLP-1 market as tirzepatide (Mounjaro for diabetes, Zepbound for obesity) generated $24.8 billion in revenue through the first nine months of 2025, becoming the world’s best-selling drug and cannibalizing older diabetes franchise Trulicity; the therapy also shows efficacy in sleep apnea and outperformed competitors in head-to-head weight-management studies. Lilly’s pipeline reinforces its competitive position: phase 3 completion for oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron and ongoing phase 3 studies for retatrutide (a GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple agonist) point to sustained product-led growth. Novo Nordisk is responding to slowing sales and share loss (49.3% of the global GLP-1 market as of August, down from 55.7% a year earlier) by expanding semaglutide labels (including MASH), developing its own triple and dual agonists, and offering Wegovy/Ozempic at $349/month to broaden cash-market access and counter compounding pharmacies. Valuation contrasts are stark: Lilly trades at ~32x forward earnings versus Novo Nordisk at ~12x and the healthcare peer average of 18.1x; the article argues Lilly’s premium is supported by faster revenue and earnings growth but leaves room for execution and regulatory risks tied to upcoming phase 3 readouts and pricing competition.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Increase exposure to Eli Lilly (LLY) to a growth-weighted position given tirzepatide’s $24.8bn YTD sales and a deep late-stage pipeline, while sizing positions to reflect a premium ~32x forward P/E and execution risk
• Consider a selective, smaller position in Novo Nordisk (NVO) as a value/recovery play because it trades near 12x forward earnings and has meaningful label expansions and pipeline assets, but monitor guidance revisions, market-share trends (49.3% from 55.7%), and compounding pharmacy pressure
• Watch catalysts and risk-manage across both names: monitor phase 3 readouts for orforglipron and retatrutide, potential oral semaglutide developments, quarterly GLP-1 sales trends, and pricing actions (e.g., Wegovy/Ozempic $349 cash offer) and use hedges or position limits ahead of those events