Compared to Estimates, Waste Management (WM) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics

Waste Management (WM) reported Q3 2025 revenue of $6.44 billion and EPS of $1.98, both slightly missing analyst consensus estimates of $6.49 billion and $2.01, respectively. While revenue grew 14.9% year-over-year and volume growth exceeded expectations, internal revenue growth and total average yield fell short, and the Recycling Processing and Sales segment saw a 13.9% year-over-year decline. The stock has underperformed the broader S&P 500 over the past month, currently holding a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Analysis

Waste Management (WM) reported Q3 2025 revenue of $6.44 billion and EPS of $1.98, both slightly missing consensus estimates of $6.49 billion (-0.71% surprise) and $2.01 (-1.49% surprise), respectively. Despite a 14.9% year-over-year revenue increase, the headline figures indicate a slight underperformance against analyst expectations. EPS also showed a modest increase from $1.96 in the year-ago quarter.

A granular look at key metrics reveals a mixed operational picture. Volume growth of 0.8% surpassed the 0.4% estimate, and acquisition-driven revenue growth of 11.9% exceeded the 10.5% estimate, contributing positively to the top line. However, internal revenue growth at 3% significantly missed the 4.9% estimate, and total average yield of 2.2% was well below the 5.6% estimate, indicating challenges in organic pricing power.

Segment performance also varied; WM Healthcare Solutions revenue of $628 million beat estimates, and WM Renewable Energy grew 32.2% year-over-year despite missing its specific estimate. Conversely, the Recycling Processing and Sales segment saw a notable 13.9% year-over-year decline, reporting $372 million against an estimated $395.44 million. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past month, returning -1.8% compared to the index's +2.5%, consistent with its Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor WM's internal revenue growth and total average yield metrics, as these significantly missed expectations despite overall revenue growth.
• Consider the implications of the underperforming Recycling Processing and Sales segment, which experienced a 13.9% year-over-year decline, on future profitability and overall growth trajectory.
• Given the recent underperformance against the S&P 500 and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), investors may want to maintain current positions or await further clarity on the company's organic growth drivers and pricing power.