Sudan war: RSF entirely pushed out of Khartoum state, army says

The Sudanese army claims to have completely ousted the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from Khartoum state, nearly two months after retaking Khartoum city. This announcement follows intensified fighting in Omdurman and accusations from Sudan that the UAE supported the RSF's attack on Port Sudan, further straining relations between the two countries. The ongoing conflict, now in its second year, has created a severe humanitarian crisis with thousands dead and millions displaced, while both sides face war crime allegations.

Analysis

The Sudanese army's claim to have entirely expelled the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from Khartoum state, following the recapture of Khartoum city nearly two months prior, signifies a potentially pivotal phase in the two-year civil war. This development, which the RSF has not yet corroborated, coincides with ongoing military operations, such as the recently initiated "large-scale offensive" in Omdurman. The conflict has precipitated the world's most severe humanitarian crisis, with thousands of fatalities and millions displaced. Geopolitically, the situation is exacerbated by heightened diplomatic friction, notably Sudan's accusations against the United Arab Emirates for allegedly supporting RSF drone attacks on critical infrastructure in Port Sudan. These attacks have reportedly led to water shortages and worsening blackouts, demonstrating the conflict's destructive impact on essential services and the fragility of the government's new operational base. The overall sentiment surrounding these events is negative, reflecting deep pessimism due to the protracted violence, humanitarian disaster, and allegations of war crimes against both warring parties, indicating profound instability within this emerging market.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the evolving military and geopolitical situation in Sudan, as further escalation or a shift in territorial control could have significant implications for regional stability and humanitarian aid efforts.
• Given the accusations against the UAE and the attacks on Port Sudan, entities with exposure to or interests in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions should assess potential spillover risks and the impact on supply chains or regional security.
• The severe disruption to infrastructure and the ongoing humanitarian crisis underscore extreme operational risks within Sudan, cautioning against direct investment and highlighting potential long-term reconstruction needs if stability is eventually restored.