Nvidia Stock Just Did This For the First Time Ever. Investors Should Pay Attention

Nvidia extended its rally to 11 straight trading sessions, its longest winning streak since the IPO, and the stock is now less than 4% below a record high. Fundamentals remain strong, with fiscal Q4 revenue of $68 billion, up 73% year over year, adjusted EPS of $1.62, up 82%, and Q1 revenue guidance of $78 billion implying 77% growth. The article argues Nvidia's current valuation of about 41x earnings is below its three-year average of 72x, reinforcing a constructive view on the stock.

Analysis

NVDA’s streak is less a momentum curiosity than a signal that positioning likely washed out faster than fundamentals deteriorated. When a high-beta leader reclaims its trend after a multi-month drawdown, the second-order effect is typically benchmark re-risking: discretionary growth managers who reduced exposure to defend performance are forced to add back, and systematic trend/CTA models can turn incremental flow into a near-term squeeze. That means the next leg may be driven more by flows than by fresh fundamental surprise, which is often enough to carry the stock toward prior highs even without a new valuation regime.

The bigger issue for the group is not whether AI demand exists, but who captures margin as the buildout broadens. NVDA remains the obvious bottleneck beneficiary, but the stated chip ramp implies a longer-duration capex cycle that will increasingly reward adjacent infrastructure names—power, cooling, networking, and memory—where supply is tighter and customer concentration risk is lower. INTC’s relevance here is mostly as a competitive yardstick: as NVDA reaccelerates, any recovery narrative in legacy CPUs becomes harder to defend unless it shows tangible share gains in AI-adjacent workloads.

The market is probably underestimating how much of NVDA’s upside is already embedded in a “perfect execution” path, which makes the stock vulnerable to any digestion period after a 10%–15% move. The near-term reversal catalyst is not demand collapse; it is simply any sign that bookings, lead times, or gross margin expansion are normalizing rather than inflecting. Over a multi-quarter horizon, the key risk is that customers learn to arbitrate spend across multiple AI suppliers, compressing the multiple even if revenue keeps compounding.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Stay long NVDA vs. the SOX index for 2-6 weeks, but structure it as a call spread or stock-plus-put hedge: upside remains toward prior highs, while a post-streak pause is the main risk after an already sharp rebound.
• Pair trade: long NVDA / short INTC over 1-3 months. The trade expresses the view that AI capex continues to accrue to the incumbent platform leader while legacy CPU turnaround narratives remain execution-dependent and lower quality.
• Add on weakness only, not strength: set a buy window in NVDA on a 3%-5% pullback over the next 1-2 weeks. Risk/reward is better if momentum cools and crowded traders de-risk into a higher-liquidity entry.
• Use INTC as a hedge against an AI-bubble de-rating: if NVDA stalls while broader semis hold up, rotate part of the exposure into INTC optionality or avoid outright long beta until the next earnings/guide reset.
• Monitor for signs of flow exhaustion in NVDA—two consecutive down days on above-average volume would be the first warning that the move has become crowded; if that happens, trim 20%-30% of tactical exposure.