These 2 Consumer Staples Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

The article details the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) methodology, a tool designed to identify stocks likely to post earnings beats by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Historically, stocks exhibiting a positive ESP combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better have achieved positive earnings surprises 70% of the time, leading to average annual returns of 28.3% over a 10-year backtest. Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) and BellRing Brands (BRBR), both consumer staples, are highlighted as current examples with positive ESPs of +7.84% and +1.10% respectively, indicating potential for earnings outperformance in their upcoming reports.

Analysis

The Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) model identifies stocks with a heightened probability of surpassing quarterly earnings estimates. This methodology, which has historically shown a 70% success rate for positive surprises when combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better, leverages the most recent analyst revisions. Two consumer staples stocks, Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) and BellRing Brands (BRBR), currently meet these criteria. Anheuser-Busch, with a #3 (Hold) rank, exhibits a positive Earnings ESP of +7.84%, derived from its Most Accurate Estimate of $0.96 per share versus a consensus estimate of $0.89 ahead of its August 7, 2025 report. Similarly, BellRing Brands, also ranked #3 (Hold), has a positive ESP of +1.10%, with a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.50 against a consensus of $0.49 for its August 4, 2025 report. These quantitative signals suggest both firms are positioned to potentially deliver positive earnings surprises in the upcoming reporting period.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with a short-term, event-driven focus could consider tactical positions in BUD and BRBR ahead of their early August earnings reports to potentially capitalize on a positive surprise.
• Note the significantly stronger signal for Anheuser-Busch, whose +7.84% Earnings ESP implies a greater likelihood of an earnings beat compared to BellRing Brands' +1.10% ESP.
• While the ESP metric points to a potential near-term catalyst, the #3 (Hold) rating on both stocks suggests they are expected to perform in-line with the market, indicating that any position should be viewed as a tactical trade around the earnings event rather than a long-term core holding without further due diligence.