These companies have a track record of stock buybacks and are winners amid volatility, says Wolfe Research

Wolfe Research highlights companies with consistent stock buyback programs, like Apple and JPMorgan Chase, as potentially resilient during market volatility driven by trade and geopolitical concerns. Apple, down 22% YTD despite a recent $100 billion buyback announcement (3.3% buyback to market cap ratio), has a consensus price target implying 16% upside. JPMorgan Chase, up 11% YTD with a 4% buyback to market cap ratio, initiated increased buybacks despite prior reservations from CEO Jamie Dimon, with analysts projecting a more modest 3% upside.

Analysis

Amid heightened market volatility stemming from shifting trade policies and geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Iran-Israel flare-up impacting oil prices and equities, Wolfe Research advocates for a defensive investment approach centered on companies with consistent, long-term share repurchase programs. This strategy identifies firms whose share counts have declined for at least a decade, a characteristic historically associated with resilience during defensive cycles and recessions. Apple (AAPL) exemplifies this, having announced a $100 billion buyback initiative post a strong Q2, despite its shares declining approximately 22% in 2025; its buyback-to-market cap ratio is 3.3%, and analysts project a potential 16% upside, with 62% rating it a buy as anticipation builds for its AI suite. Conversely, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has seen its stock appreciate around 11% in 2025, supported by increased buybacks leading to a 4% buyback-to-market cap ratio, initiated despite earlier valuation concerns from CEO Jamie Dimon due to a burgeoning cash reserve. Analyst outlook for JPM is more tempered, with 56% buy ratings and an implied 3% upside.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors might consider prioritizing companies with established, multi-year share buyback records as a defensive tactic in the current volatile market environment, aligning with Wolfe Research's findings.
• For Apple, the combination of a significant new $100 billion buyback program, a 22% YTD share price decline, and a 16% analyst-projected upside could warrant consideration for accumulation, especially for those anticipating growth from its AI initiatives.
• With JPMorgan Chase shares already up 11% YTD and a modest 3% projected upside, existing holders might maintain their positions while new investors could await more attractive entry points, despite its strong 4% buyback ratio.
• Investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments and trade negotiations as these factors continue to be significant drivers of market sentiment and could influence the performance of even fundamentally strong companies with buyback programs.