Trump Wants Cuts, The Long End Needs Relief, And I'm Still Buying The Pullback

The writer remains bullish on the S&P 500 earnings story, but says the move in rates has made the call harder, with the 30-year yield above 5% and the 10-year yield breaking out. The focus is on bond-market pressure rather than a discrete event, pointing to a more cautious near-term equity setup. The piece suggests rate volatility is now the key risk to the bullish earnings view.

Analysis

The writer remains bullish on the S&P 500 earnings story, but says the move in rates has made the call harder, with the 30-year yield above 5% and the 10-year yield breaking out. The focus is on bond-market pressure rather than a discrete event, pointing to a more cautious near-term equity setup. The piece suggests rate volatility is now the key risk to the bullish earnings view.